Commentary By J. Miles Coleman

A 2023 Election Mega-Preview By J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

Places to watch in Kentucky, Mississippi, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The key races we’re watching next week are gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi, the state legislative contests in Virginia, an abortion-related ballot issue in Ohio, and a state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania.

— We continue to favor incumbent Govs. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Tate Reeves (R-MS) in next week’s gubernatorial elections, even as upsets are possible in either.

— If the abortion rights vote in Ohio is close, some key Obama-to-Trump counties may tell the tale of the election, while partisan loyalties in Pennsylvania may be a bit weaker in the court race than in a federal race.

Louisiana 2023: The Road to Saturday’s Primary By J. Miles Coleman

With a November runoff expected, some context for this weekend’s jungle primary.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— On Saturday, Louisiana voters will go to the polls to begin selecting a replacement for term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA).

— In the all-party primary, state Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) has been the frontrunner for much of the campaign and will likely advance to a runoff.

— The state Democratic establishment has thrown its weight behind former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, who will probably join Landry in a runoff.

— Despite Edwards’s success in recent gubernatorial elections, many of the dynamics that favored him in 2015 and 2019 are now absent. The Crystal Ball rates the race as Likely Republican.

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part Two By J. Miles Coleman

Comparing ballot issues to partisan races in VT, CA, MT, KY, and state halves.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Vermont and California were two blue states where the pro-abortion rights sides of 2022 ballot measures ran considerably ahead of Democratic nominees for statewide office.

— Also in 2022, voters in Kentucky and Montana defeated GOP-backed abortion-related ballot questions; the results of those votes may provide something of an electoral roadmap for Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT).

— The pro-abortion rights side has generally run ahead of Democratic candidate performance recently, although there are now examples from several states of Democratic candidates doing better than the ballot issues in a variety of heavily minority areas.

— In each of the seven states that have held abortion-related ballot measures since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling, the pro-abortion rights side has outperformed Biden more In the counties that make up lesser-populated “bottom half” counties in these states.

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part One By J. Miles Coleman

Comparing ballot issues to partisan races in KS, OH, and MI.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decisions last year, seven states have held abortion-related ballot issues, and abortion rights advocates have won all seven contests.

— In Kansas and Michigan, the pro-abortion rights side broadly outperformed the winning Democratic nominees for governor.

— In Ohio, last week’s Issue 1 ballot question, which was cast as a proxy vote on abortion rights, followed a similar pattern, roundly outperforming now-former Rep. Tim Ryan’s (D) showing in last year’s Senate race.

Leaning Into State Trends: The West Coast By J. Miles Coleman

Also some larger observations on how all the states have trended.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The West Coast states have all been Democratic-leaning in nearly every recent presidential election.

— One exception was Oregon, which leaned slightly right of the nation in 2000, although it is now a solidly blue state.

— Looking nationally, Biden was the best-performing recent Democratic nominee in several Sun Belt states — many of which will be at the center of the 2024 campaign.

— Donald Trump, between his two elections as the GOP nominee, turned in the best recent Republican performances in half the states — this includes much of the electorally-critical Rust Belt.

Leaning Into State Trends: The Midwest and Interior West By J. Miles Coleman

The two regions have four Biden-won states that will be key in 2024

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020.

— In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans.

— In the Interior West, Arizona’s Republican lean has been eroding in elections since 2008 — this allowed Biden to carry it in 2020, but Democrats will also have to work to keep neighboring Nevada in their column.

Leaning Into State Trends: The Northeast and Greater South By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried 6 states — that were collectively worth 79 electoral votes — by a margin less than his national showing. In some ways, this made his electoral coalition less efficient than that of Barack Obama’s in 2012.

— No state has been within 5 points of the national popular vote in each of the past 6 presidential elections, but Pennsylvania has come the closest, though it has taken on a slight GOP lean.

— Aside from Virginia and Georgia, North Carolina, despite a persistent 6-point GOP lean in recent elections, seems like Democrats’ best southern prospect.

The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting By J. Miles Coleman

Over two decades, double-digit overperformances have become far less common.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common.

— Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead of their party’s presidential nominee has decreased sharply.

— This trend helps explain why we currently rate Democratic-held West Virginia as Leans Republican and started off Montana and Ohio as Toss-ups.

2024 Governors Races: A First Look By J. Miles Coleman

And an updated word on Mississippi.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up.

— The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats.

— If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in great shape to hold New Hampshire and Vermont. But they would be great Democratic opportunities as open seats.

— Mississippi moves to Likely Republican following the entry of a credible Democratic candidate after our initial 2023 rating release last week.

The 2023 Governor Races By J. Miles Coleman

Democrats retain a slight edge in Kentucky, while Republicans favored in neighboring Deep South states.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While it’s easy to begin looking towards the 2024 election cycle, 3 states will have gubernatorial contests this year.

— In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear remains personally popular, but he will be running in a red state with a large GOP bench.

— Louisiana and Mississippi should be easier contests for Republicans. Term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) will be hard for Democrats to replace, while Mississippi, where Democrats have not won a gubernatorial contest this century, will also be an uphill fight for them.

— The initial ratings for these 3 races are Leans Democratic for Kentucky, Safe Republican for Mississippi, and Likely Republican for Louisiana.

Breaking Down North Carolina and Pennsylvania’s New Maps By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— North Carolina and Pennsylvania are 2 closely-divided states where the redistricting process this cycle ultimately fell to Democratic-controlled state courts.

— Democrats seem likely to gain at least 1 seat out of North Carolina, although the relatively favorable map that they got will only be in place for the 2022 election cycle.

— As we expected, a GOP-held seat was eliminated as Pennsylvania’s delegation was forced to downsize, but some of its Democratic members, particularly in the eastern part of the state, will have their work cut out for them.

Less Than A Year Out: A Redistricting Update By J. Miles Coleman

Going over new maps in NC, TX, and other states.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— With some more populous states passing new district maps, the 2022 congressional landscape is getting a bit clearer.

— In Texas and North Carolina, Republicans took contrasting approaches — they were relatively tame in the former and more aggressive in the latter — but should likely net seats out of both states.

— In smaller states, like Alabama and West Virginia, redistricting has basically panned out as we expected.

OR Finishes Redistricting, with CO, ME, and NE Close Behind; Many Other States Release Drafts by J. Miles Coleman

Last week, in the middle of what turned out to be a tumultuous special legislative session in Oregon, the Crystal Ball looked at the congressional map that Democrats were pushing for. After a COVID scare that prompted leadership to halt negotiations for several days, the Oregon legislature convened over the weekend. Facing the prospect of a walkout by Republican legislators, Democrats proposed a new map that was designed to be more palatable to the GOP. It worked. On Monday, enough Republicans showed up to allow Democrats to pass their plan.

Republican Governors Draw Primary Challengers, But History Suggests They Face Long Odds By J. Miles Coleman

Checking in on gubernatorial races in Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, and elsewhere.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— With months to go until the 2022 gubernatorial primaries, several Republican governors have drawn notable primary challengers.

— Still, it is relatively rare for sitting governors to lose renomination, and all GOP incumbents appear to be favored in their primaries.

— Most, though not all, Republican primary challengers who have emerged are running to the right of their incumbents.

— While we’re holding off on making any ratings changes for now, any primary upsets may prompt us to reevaluate some races.

Did Scandal Cost North Carolina Democrats a Senate Seat? By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In North Carolina’s hotly contested Senate race last year, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) narrowly won reelection against a scandal-plagued opponent, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D-NC).

— Had Cunningham’s candidacy not been weighed down by a personal affair, he may have still lost. Indeed, a Tillis win was consistent with other results around the country and in the state.

— Still, Cunningham certainly didn’t benefit from his scandal, and it very likely cost him votes.

How Mid-Decade Redistrictings Saved the Democratic House Majority By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Though new congressional lines are typically put into effect for election years ending in “-2”, four states adopted new maps at later points during this last decade.

— In North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, Republican-friendly maps were thrown out mid-decade in favor of plans that were more amenable to Democrats.

— If those pro-Republican maps were still in place, there’s a good chance that House Republicans would be in the majority now.

2022 Gubernatorial Races: A Baseline By J. Miles Coleman

Aside from Maryland, no statehouses are initially favored to flip -- but surprises are surely coming.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— 38 states will see gubernatorial races over the next two years; Democrats currently hold 18 of the seats that will be contested while the GOP holds 20.

— Maryland, where popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is term-limited, will be hard for Republicans to hold. With a Leans Democratic rating, the Crystal Ball expects a Democrat to flip the seat.

— We’re starting the cycle off with five Toss-ups: Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Not coincidentally, four of those gave President Biden very narrow margins last year.

— Democrats are clear favorites to retain governorships in three of the nation’s most populous states — California, Illinois, and New York — but they could be better-positioned in each.

— In the Senate, Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-MO) retirement nudges that contest from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

Virginia and New Jersey Governors 2021: A First Look By J. Miles Coleman

In blue states, Democrats could match milestones and break curses.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Virginia Democrats are trying to win three consecutive gubernatorial races, a feat the party has not accomplished since the 1980s.

— Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) is the favorite for his state’s Democratic nomination, though he faces a diverse field.

— In a move that’s ruffled some feathers on their side, Virginia Republicans will select their nominee at a May convention.

— In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) is poised to become the state’s first Democratic governor to secure reelection since 1977.

— Virginia’s open-seat race starts as Leans Democratic in the Crystal Ball ratings. New Jersey starts as Likely Democratic.

Moving Past Impeachment: Trump Acquitted (Again) By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In the second impeachment trial of his presidency, former President Donald Trump was acquitted by the Senate. Seven Republicans joined 50 Democrats in voting to convict Trump.

— The sole Republican running for reelection in 2022 who voted to convict Trump was Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) — she has a reputation as a political maverick.

— Democrats will be targeting a few open-seat contests next year in the Senate, specifically North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where retiring Republicans have been censured by their local parties.

— For now, Senate Democrats probably won’t see much electoral backlash from their votes, though Democrats representing Trump states may feel heat in 2024.

The House: As 2020’s Final Contests Settle, Vacancies Arise By J. Miles Coleman

Look for House seat openings in Ohio, New Mexico to come up soon.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— With the race for NY-22 settled, 2020’s House elections may finally be fully in the rearview mirror, though IA-2’s results will be reviewed by Congress.

— Before this week, we rated two special elections in Louisiana as safe for either party; with a new vacancy in TX-6, we see an imminent special election there as Likely Republican.

— Two more districts, NM-1 and OH-11, seem likely to host special elections soon, as their incumbents have been designated for positions in the Biden administration.

— Sen. Richard Shelby’s (R-AL) retirement doesn’t impact our Safe Republican rating for the Alabama Senate race.