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Commentary By Dan Guild

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June 27, 2024

The ‘Somewhats’ Election: Soft Biden Disapprovers Key for Both Candidates By Dan Guild

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Despite an overall job approval rating hovering around just 40% in polling averages, President Biden retains a path to victory.

— This is because of his unusual competitiveness among voters who just “somewhat” disapprove of his job performance, a group among whom Democrats performed relatively strongly in the 2022 midterm and where polling shows Biden holding up reasonably well in 2024.

— Relatively similar numbers of voters strongly disapprove of Biden’s job performance and hold a strongly unfavorable view of Donald Trump. Biden’s “strong” approval is fairly low, though, compared to recent incumbents who ran for reelection.

— The “somewhat disapprovers” skew younger and nonwhite, which presents Biden with both an opportunity and a challenge.