Harris Polling Better than Trump? Fat Chance

What a few weeks it’s been! Starting with President Joe Biden’s trainwreck debate performance a few weeks ago, stumbling and stuttering, with his zinger “We finally beat Medicare,” to an attempted and bungled assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump.

As a result, the Secret Service director resigned in disgrace leaving in her wake far more questions than answers and aromas of JFK and coverups. Biden might have had a medical emergency in Las Vegas, supposedly a mild case of COVID, necessitating a frantic high speed Air Force One flight home.

Brother Frank Biden confirmed what the media and White House have been dutifully hiding, “Selfishly, I will have him back to enjoy whatever time we has left.”

Biden then went dark for several days, with swirling rumors that he was in the last hours of life or already dead. His only sign of life was an innocuous tweet announcing he was dropping out of the presidential race. No speech. No televised address, only a short statement containing what many feel was not his actual signature.

Border czar and vice president Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee and within a day or two, supposedly raised more money than any candidate in history, secured enough delegates for the nomination, without any vote by Democrat voters, and is now leading Trump in the polls.

This is the same candidate who was so popular just four years ago that she dropped out of the Democrat primaries before the first caucus or primary due to her inability to raise money and her polling around one percent. She is now apparently the second coming for the Democrat party.

Look at some recent headlines. From The Hill, “Harris holds edge over Trump in new Reuters/Ipsos poll.” Politico is a bit more cautious, “Harris neck-and-neck with Trump after campaign launch, new poll finds.” And from NPR, “Poll: Presidential race hits a reset with Harris vs. Trump.”

Some of the Harris enthusiasm is due to “anyone but Biden” fatigue, Democrats pinned their hopes on a senile old man who destroyed the U.S. economy, opened our borders to anyone and everyone, and has started several wars, if not World War III due to his foreign policy ineptitude.

Although Democrats loathe Donald Trump, voting for Biden was a bridge too far for many Democrat voters, and having another option, a younger non-corpse-like candidate, even if similarly incompetent, was a breath of fresh air.

But what about the actual poll? The above headlines are from a Reuters/Ipsos poll, “Most Americans support Biden leaving the race, Democrats rally behind Harris.” This confirms Biden fatigue and the relief of another option, the new shiny object for corporate media and paid Democrat shills on Twitter/X to salivate over.

Here is a Reuters headline, “Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds.”

This is a poll of “registered voters,” names on the voter rolls. A more accurate sample would be of “likely voters,” the approach Rasmussen Reports takes in its political opinion polls. Many registered voters rarely or never vote. Likely voters are far more enthusiastic about voting, based on their past voting record.

More important are the political preferences of the survey sample. In the Reuters/Ipsos survey, buried in the methodology, far from the headline, is this gem, “The sample includes 1,018 registered voters, 426 Democrats, 376 Republicans, and 341 Independents.”

In percentages, their poll was 42% Democrat and 37% Republican, a five-point difference, far more than Harris’s two-point edge in the poll. Why not poll the studio audience of “The View” or “Jimmy Kimmel Live” for an even more pro Harris sample and result? Garbage in, garbage out.

Another Yahoo News/YouGov poll found, “Harris ties Trump in a hypothetical matchup, 46% to 46%.” They surveyed 1,743 U.S. adults. Are they U.S. citizens or illegal migrants? Are they registered to vote? Did they just happen to answer the pollster’s phone call?

Again, party affiliation is important. In this sample, 33% were self-identified Democrats and 29% Republicans, a four-point difference.

Another way to look at Harris’s sudden popularity is by comparing her to Biden. From 538 we can see Biden currently at 39% approval and 56% disapproval. By comparison, Harris is currently at 38% approval and 51% disapproval. Biden and Harris are essentially the same in terms of their political popularity.

Now compare Biden to Trump. In the Real Clear Polling average, Trump has a three-point advantage over Biden, ranging from -2 to +6, with all but one poll showing Trump ahead of Biden.

So now we see Harris, as unpopular as her boss Biden, with Biden behind Trump, suggesting that Harris should also be behind Trump. Yet Harris is now ahead of Trump?

In elementary school math, this was the transitive property. If A=B and B=C, then A=C. Instead, somehow A became greater than C. This poll failed basic arithmetic.

How to explain it? Partially through poorly sampled polls, partially through the “anyone but Biden” phenomenon, and lastly due to the honeymoon phase bump that Harris is enjoying, at least for now.

Be wary of polls which suddenly show Harris crushing it. The media and Democrat influencers on social media will push these polls, ignoring the unfavorable polls or sampling differentials.

Remember that many of these polls are designed to influence, not reflect, public opinion. Take them with a big grain of salt.

Brian C. Joondeph, M.D., is a physician and writer. 

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