Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
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                            February 6, 2026Will Falling Birth Rates Mean a More Conservative World? By Michael Barone
   George Orwell was on to it almost 80 years ago -- the problem of below-replacement level birth rates. In a short book written for the Britain in Pictures series in 1947, written just as Britain was emerging from wartime rigors into an uncharted postwar future, Orwell noted that despite an upward blip in birth rates during the war, "the general curve is downward. The position is not quite so dangerous as it is sometimes said to be, but can only be put right if the curve not only rises sharply but does so within ten or at most twenty years."
February 5, 2026How Redistricting Scrambled the Crossover District List—and How It Could be Scrambled Even More By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In the 2024 election, just 16 congressional districts voted differently for president and for U.S. House. Democratic House candidates carried 13 Donald Trump-won districts, and Republican House candidates carried 3 Kamala Harris-won districts.
— Redistricting, however, has altered the picture and expanded the number of crossover districts. Based on the maps in place now, there are 24 crossover districts: 16 Trump-district Democrats and 8 Harris-district Republicans.
— Many of these newly-created seats are designed to flip to the party that won the district for president. If 2026 is like 2018, Democrats may have a more lopsided number of crossover districts than they did in 2024.
— Further redistricting moves in states like Florida, Maryland, New York, and Virginia could expand the number of crossover seats.
February 5, 2026Crossing the Chesapeake Bay: Maryland Democrats’ Renewed 8-0 Proposal By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Democrats in the Maryland House of Delegates recently passed a map recommended by Gov. Wes Moore’s (D) Redistricting Advisory Commission.
— The potential new map seriously imperils the delegation’s sole Republican, Rep. Andy Harris (R, MD-1), while firming up Democrats’ most marginal seat on the existing map, western Maryland’s MD-6.
— Despite the lower chamber’s vote, state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) has emerged as a major opponent of mid-decade redistricting; he says he will not prioritize passing a new map.
— Even if the commission’s map passes the entire legislature, state courts could take steps to block its implementation, as was the case with a similar 8-0 proposal in 2022.

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                            February 4, 2026Girls vs. Boys By John Stossel
        Am I sexist?

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                            February 4, 2026I Guess That's Why They Call It the Blues By Stephen Moore
        The Democrats circa 2026 have almost become tax-and-spend parodies of themselves.

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                            February 4, 2026Trump and the Polls: A Current Assessment with an Optimistic View By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
As President Donald Trump begins the second year of his second term, recent polls show a nuanced but not discouraging view of his political support. While the figures don't indicate a dramatic rise in popularity, they provide a solid basis for cautious optimism about Republican chances in the 2026 midterms.

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                            February 3, 2026The Trump Coalition Wins But the GOP Brand Doesn't By Daniel McCarthy
        Just how badly did Republicans do in two Texas special elections last weekend?

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                            January 30, 2026Big Surprises in the 2030 Census Estimates By Michael Barone
        About a month late, presumably due to last fall's government shutdown, the Census Bureau has released its estimates of the populations of the 50 states and the District of Columbia for July 1, 2025.
January 29, 2026The Senate: A Couple of Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans Still Favored Overall By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Despite facing what is likely to be a difficult national political environment this fall, Republicans remain favored to hold their Senate majority.
— President Trump did well among young people and nonwhite voters in 2024 for a Republican, but he has seen his approval erode with those voters. However, that doesn’t have as much of a bearing on the Senate map, with Democrats having to compete in whiter states like Iowa and Ohio.
— Democrats do get a couple of rating upgrades this week, with the biggest change coming in Georgia, as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) race moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

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                            January 28, 2026Mr. President, Please Free Caleb Bailey By Stephen Moore
   "How can the life of such a man / Be in the palm of some fool's hand?" -- Bob Dylan, "Hurricane"

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                            January 28, 2026Politicians Make Things Worse By John Stossel
   Home prices keep rising.  

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                            January 27, 2026Canada Should Warm to Trump's Arctic Plans By Daniel McCarthy
        Donald Trump's Arctic strategy has been 500 years in the making.

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                            January 23, 2026Trump's Outrageous Threats Get Practical Results By Michael Barone
        Think about it. Heads of government do not normally reveal the texts of private communications from other heads of state. Yet that is what Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store of Norway did Sunday, on the first weekend of the World Economic Forum in Davos, where the international press would have no difficulty finding appalled foreign leaders to comment.

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                            January 22, 2026What Polling Reveals About Trump, Immigration Enforcement, the Economy, and Republican Prospects By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
Recent polling shows a widening gap between corporate media narratives and American voters' opinions, especially on immigration enforcement and its political ramifications.
January 22, 2026Handicapping The 2026 State Legislative Map: A First Look By Louis Jacobson
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In our first handicapping of state legislature control for the 2026 cycle, we find 15 chambers that are competitive—either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic. That’s slightly higher than the number we found at a similar point in the 2022 and 2024 election cycles.
— At this point in the 2026 cycle, the Republicans are playing defense in more chambers than the Democrats are. The GOP currently holds 8 of the competitive chambers, while the Democrats hold 4 of them. Meanwhile, both Alaska chambers are controlled by a cross-partisan alliance that is favored to continue, and Minnesota’s House chamber should revert to being tied once vacancies are filled by special elections later this month.
— Among the chambers we rate as competitive, 9 are Toss-ups. This category includes 6 Republican-held chambers (the Arizona Senate, the Arizona House, the Michigan House, the New Hampshire House, the Wisconsin Senate, and the Wisconsin House) and 2 Democratic-held chambers (the Michigan Senate and the Minnesota Senate), as well as the aforementioned, tied Minnesota House.
— In many states, Democrats are looking forward to a favorable cycle, driven by a reaction to President Donald Trump and his policies. However, in some states, voters may be tired of Democratic governance at the state level, creating cross-cutting pressures.
— In a number of legislative chambers controlled by Republicans, Democrats are hoping to ride a blue wave and break GOP supermajorities.

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                            January 21, 2026Police Theft By John Stossel
   Did you know that in most of America, police can take your property, even if you did nothing wrong?

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                            January 20, 2026From Rock to Tech, Talent Flees Taxes By Daniel McCarthy
        California Democrats should listen to The Rolling Stones.

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                            January 20, 2026This Is No Way to Gimme Shelter By Stephen Moore
        Americans today are justifiably angry about the price of rents and mortgages. Home prices have roughly tripled over the last 25 years, and the median home price is now $415,000.

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                            January 16, 2026What's the Matter With Minnesota? By Michael Barone
   Minnesota? Somalis? Nine billion dollars in alleged welfare fraud?

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                            January 14, 2026The Warmth of Collectivism By John Stossel
        "Replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism!" says my new socialist mayor.