Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

June 18, 2026If Democrats Get a 2006-Style Senate Result, It May be Because Trump Has a 2006-Style Approval Rating By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— While the 2018 midterm was generally a “blue wave,” Republicans still held the Senate. If Democrats want to flip the Senate, they’ll need a year that’s more like 2006.
— The Senate map was in some ways completely different heading into the 2006 election as opposed to the Senate map we have now, and it was less tied to presidential partisanship.
— However, there are some commonalities between the top Democratic Senate targets in 2006 and in 2026, although the comparisons require some stretching.
— But more important is President Trump’s approval rating, which probably needs to be more like George W. Bush’s in 2006 than Trump’s own approval in 2018 in order for Democrats to flip the Senate.

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                            June 17, 2026Magic Medicine? By John Stossel
        People are excited about peptides.

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                            June 16, 2026The Great Escape -- Let Young Workers Out of Social Security By Stephen Moore
   What cruel irony that we learned last week that Social Security is going broke even sooner than we thought. The Social Security trust fund will be exhausted in 2032, according to the latest Trustees Report. How odd that it is even referred to as a "trust fund," because there is no trust, and there is no fund.

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                            June 16, 2026University Professors Against Academic Freedom By Daniel McCarthy
        Does academic freedom have a greater enemy than the American Association of University Professors?

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                            June 12, 2026Gordon Wood and the Historians Who Told the Real Story of the Founders By Michael Barone
   The sudden death of the historian Gordon Wood, just weeks before the celebration of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, is one more mark of the closure of a golden age of the historiography of the Revolutionary era. It's an occasion to reflect on the uniqueness, indeed the idiosyncrasy, of the emergence of the primacy of this United States among the nations of the world.
June 11, 2026The Senate: The Race for the Majority is Not a Toss-up, But the Races That Will Decide It Are By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— We are making three Senate rating changes this week, all in favor of Democrats. North Carolina moves to Leans Democratic, and Alaska and Ohio are now Toss-ups.
— This makes the Democrats’ path to the majority clearer, but we still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate.
— Democrats need to win all four of our Toss-ups to get to a majority, while Republicans need just one to preserve a nominal 50-50 majority because they hold the vice presidential tiebreaker.
— Democrats also have their work cut out for them in the four Toss-ups, albeit for different reasons. In Maine and Michigan, there are questions about the quality of the Democratic candidates. In Alaska and Ohio, meanwhile, the questions are more about Democrats’ ability to overcome each state’s pronounced GOP lean.

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                            June 10, 2026Here to 'Help' By John Stossel
   Politicians promise they'll "help" us.

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                            June 9, 2026Trump's Critics Dead Wrong (Again) on the Economy By Stephen Moore
        Last week's blockbuster jobs report, with more than 265,000 jobs added when including upward employment revisions, was very welcome news to almost all Americans. The exception would be the economists of the left who throughout Donald Trump's now-five-and-a-half years in the White House keep getting the economy dead wrong.

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                            June 9, 2026Pope Leo Courts the Global Left By Daniel McCarthy
No pope can afford to be completely apolitical, but Leo XIV, the first American pontiff, is proving to be more political than most -- and he's siding with the left.

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                            June 5, 2026Which Party Will Recover First From Its Current Self-Harm? By Michael Barone
   Tuesday saw the usual first-week-of-June gaggle of state primary elections. It's a feature of the American federal system that states choose when to hold primary and local elections.
June 4, 2026Rating Changes in Iowa Following Tuesday’s Primary By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R, IA-4), who got a late endorsement from Donald Trump, lost a gubernatorial primary to Zach Lahn, an anti-establishment newcomer.
— Regardless of who the GOP picked to run against state Auditor Rob Sand, the Democratic nominee for governor, we have been considering moving the race to Toss-up—and we are making that change today.
— We are also bumping both Iowa’s Senate race and the contest for the state’s 2nd District from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
— With the Supreme Court allowing Alabama to use a 6-1 Republican map, mid-decade redistricting may be coming to a close, at least for 2026.
— In Vermont, popular Gov. Phil Scott (R) announced at the last minute that he’d seek a sixth term; his decision means that the GOP will almost certainly keep the state’s governor’s mansion for at least 2 more years.

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                            June 3, 2026Bureaucrats in the Way By John Stossel
        Is your business "needed"?

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                            June 2, 2026Keep Politicians Out of College Sports By Stephen Moore
        Nearly everyone who is a college sports fan, myself included, knows the state of affairs in the NCAA is one fine mess. Especially regarding football and men's basketball, the two major money-making sports, things have changed massively in the last few years -- and mostly not in a good way.

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                            June 2, 2026A Mass-Graves Myth Is Media Malpractice By Daniel McCarthy
   A hoax costs taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars and appears to incite arson attacks against dozens of churches.

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                            May 29, 2026The California Dream Ends in Empty Reservoirs and Homeless Tents By Michael Barone
        Many years ago, sometime after Ronald Reagan replaced Pat Brown as governor of California, I was driving up the coast from Los Angeles to San Francisco and visited Hearst Castle, William Randolph Hearst's epic mansion in San Simeon. It was state property then, donated by the Hearst family, and the uniformed guide struck me as knowledgeable, competent and proud of her work.

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                            May 28, 2026MAGA Is Winning Primaries. The Next Challenge Is November Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
For years, the political class has confidently predicted the demise of the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement and President Donald Trump’s America First agenda.
May 28, 2026Texas Senate to Leans Republican Following Paxton Win; TX-35 Makes Same Move; Redistricting Updates By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In the closely watched Texas Senate race, state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) easily defeated Sen. John Cornyn (R) in yesterday’s GOP runoff.
— With Paxton’s nomination, the Texas Senate race moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, as Republicans went with a riskier general election candidate. But, as our rating suggests, riskier can still win.
— We are making the same move in TX-35, a San Antonio-area seat that was redrawn to have a mild red hue, as Democrats avoided nominating their weaker option.
— Elsewhere in the South, it appears South Carolina’s House map will retain one blue-leaning seat for the 2026 election.

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                            May 27, 2026250 Years By John Stossel
        This summer, the United States celebrates its 250th birthday.

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                            May 26, 2026Pope Leo Needs Trump to Tame AI By Daniel McCarthy
        Pope Leo is right about the need to make artificial intelligence answer to the human good. AI has to be subject to human moral responsibility.

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                            May 26, 2026America Needs More, Not Fewer, Billionaires By Stephen Moore
Billionaires are getting a bad name. "Eat the rich" is the new mantra of the Left's greed and envy lobby.