Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

August 20, 2026Democratic Outlook Brightens in Races for Vital State AG Posts By Louis Jacobson
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— This year, 30 states are holding elections for attorney general. Currently, the GOP holds 27 attorney general offices to 23 for the Democrats (counting an independent in Hawaii who was appointed by Democratic Gov. Josh Green).
— Our analysis suggests that eight AG races this year are currently competitive, up from seven when we last looked at these races a year ago. Two are Toss-ups, down from five a year ago, with three of last year’s Toss-ups shifting to Leans Democratic.
— All the shifts we’ve made in this analysis benefit the Democrats. In addition to the three races that switched from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, two races shifted from Safe Republican to Likely Republican and two races shifted from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
August 19, 2026Florida’s Primary: Senate Race Moves Back to Safe Republican, While a Pair of House Races Remain Where They Were By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In an upset last night, Florida Democrats nominated state Rep. Angie Nixon over the much better funded, and less progressive, Alex Vindman.
— Without Vindman’s fundraising capacity, Democrats will probably have an even harder time against appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R), so we are moving the race from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.
— In the 7th District, Rep. Cory Mills (R) became the 12th member this year to lose a primary; his defeat actually leaves the GOP better-positioned to hold his seat.
— South Florida Democrats also made an electorally wise choice of their own, opting to renominate Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D) in the marginal FL-25 over his more progressive primary opponent.

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                            August 19, 2026Racist Tests By John Stossel
   Did you know that the SAT is racist?

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                            August 18, 2026Democrats' Southern Strategy By Daniel McCarthy
        Don't believe the Democratic National Committee's official storyline -- the DNC's decision to make South Carolina the first Democratic presidential primary in 2028 isn't about introducing more racial diversity into the early contests.

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                            August 18, 2026Net Zero Is Dead and Gone By Stephen Moore
        It was only a few years ago when the climate change alarms and green energy fad were all the rage at the White House and corporate board rooms. Former President Joe Biden's policies were all tilted to ending fossil fuels, and many of America's biggest corporations embraced the concept of net-zero fossil fuels. This was the movement during the Biden years to eliminate virtually ALL oil, natural gas and coal production, and replace these energy sources with windmills, solar panels and electric vehicles.

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                            August 14, 2026Midwest Shows DSA Left Could Take Over the Democratic Party By Michael Barone
   It's worth poking around the entrails of the returns for the agonizingly close and, given the pre-primary polls, surprising results of recent Democratic primaries in the key swing Midwestern states of Michigan and Wisconsin, with a side look at Minnesota.
August 13, 2026Sanders 2016 to El-Sayed 2026: Two Different Paths to Narrow, Progressive Primary Wins in Michigan By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Last week, Abdul El-Sayed captured the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan over Rep. Haley Stevens (D, MI-11).
— That El-Sayed narrowly won the nomination running as a progressive was one of the many parallels this primary had to the state’s 2016 Democratic presidential contest.
— However, there was considerable change between the two Democratic primaries, as El-Sayed fared better than Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in metro Detroit but worse in rural areas.

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                            August 13, 2026Fauci’s Faustian Bargain By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
A Faustian bargain is a deal with the Devil, trading principle for power, prestige, or personal ambition. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared to make such a bargain – exchanging the skepticism and humility that define sound science for the adoration, celebrity, and political influence that transformed him into “America’s doctor.”

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                            August 12, 2026From Drone to Door By John Stossel
   There's a new delivery system in town.
August 12, 2026Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race Moves to Leans Democratic After the Establishment’s Great Escape; Other Primary Takeaways; Rating Changes in Montana and Ohio By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) did just enough down the stretch of the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary to edge out far-left state Rep. Francesca Hong (D).
— Crowley enters the fall campaign as a modest favorite to hold the Wisconsin governorship for Democrats. If Hong had won, the race would have remained a Toss-up.
— The tally of House incumbent primary losers, already high, increased on Tuesday as Rep. John Larson (D, CT-1) was swamped. Meanwhile, South Carolina Republicans set up a Senate runoff in two weeks as appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R) attempts to hang onto her late brother’s seat.
— The Montana Senate race moves further toward Republicans, while Rep. Max Miller’s (R, OH-7) embattled reelection bid becomes a Toss-up.

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                            August 11, 2026Homebuyers Deserve the Facts About Crime and Schools By Daniel McCarthy
   Nothing is more natural when buying a house than looking into how safe the neighborhood is, and, if you have or plan to have children, whether the schools are any good.

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                            August 11, 2026What Bank ATMs Teach Us About AI By Stephen Moore
   New inventions and technologies, from the lightbulb to the farm tractor to the automobile to the laptop computer to Uber drivers, cause serious job market disruptions. They also cause a backlash, as horse and buggy operators, cab drivers, video rental stores and typewriter makers inevitably predicted chaos and job losses.

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                            August 7, 2026Is Public Opinion Turning Against Trump’s Iran War? By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
A recent Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 54% of likely U.S. voters believe that, in hindsight, President Donald Trump’s decision to enter the war in Iran was the wrong one, while only 35% believe it was the right one.

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                            August 7, 2026The Long Rise of the New Democratic Party By Michael Barone
        Can I claim to have predicted, way back in 1988, the result of Michigan's fiercely contested Democratic primary for U.S. senator this week?
August 6, 2026The Kamala Conundrum: Examining A Potential 2028 Harris Presidential Run By Nick Field
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— While Kamala Harris generally leads 2028 national primary polls, she trails several potential opponents in New Hampshire and has even been behind in her home state of California.
— Although defeated presidential nominees have occasionally won a subsequent nomination, and sometimes even the White House, Harris’s trajectory is more similar to those who eventually gave up their comeback attempt.
— Looming over all of this is the question of whether the Democratic electorate is willing to nominate a woman for a third time in 12 years, as that glass ceiling remains stubbornly unshattered.

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                            August 5, 2026Climate Crisis By John Stossel
   Just two years ago, the United Nations secretary general announced, "Global warming has ended ... The era of global boiling has arrived!"

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                            August 4, 2026Five Lessons Learned From the Fauci Fiasco By Stephen Moore
        COVID-19 was a traumatic experience for our families, small businesses, schools and country. Understandably, people don't like thinking or talking about it. But we must. We now know, thanks to Sen. Rand Paul's doggedness and Anthony Fauci's supreme arrogance that he freely expresses in his diary, almost every decision made by the medical industrial complex was exactly the wrong thing to do.

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                            August 4, 2026Diversity, Equity, and Confabulation By Daniel McCarthy
        If The Onion or Babylon Bee or another satirical publication wanted to spoof the absurdity of DEI -- the ideology of "Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" -- they couldn't have invented a character as unbelievable as Jason Arday.

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                            July 31, 2026America's Peak Socialism -- Abandoned a Century Ago By Michael Barone
        The emergence of the Democratic Socialists of America and their political victories, from New York City across the fruited plains of Michigan and Wisconsin, all the way to Colorado, strikes many as a new thing in U.S. politics.
July 30, 2026Georgia Senate: The Peach State Ripens for Democrats By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— A combination of dominant fundraising, stable polling, and a favorable political environment has strengthened Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-GA) chances for reelection in his purple state.
— Even if Rep. Mike Collins (R, GA-10) gains ground against Ossoff as Republican voters consolidate, recent Georgia elections suggest Democrats can withstand heavy losses among white voters and still prevail statewide.
— Georgia may look competitive on paper, but the outcome itself appears increasingly predictable.