Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

September 10, 2026The Six Regions That Will Decide the House By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The key districts in the battle for the House fit into a half-dozen regions scattered across the nation.
— What follows is a path toward what Democrats need to do (or Republicans need to prevent) in order to win a bare, 218-217 majority.
— Today’s update comes with a pair of rating changes in favor of Democrats; that does not include a pair of rating changes we are planning to make in Missouri if the state ultimately reverts to its 2022 map.

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                            September 9, 2026A Better Labor Day By John Stossel
   Did you celebrate labor last Monday, Labor Day?
September 9, 2026Secretary of State Races: Election Denialism Could Cost GOP Again in Swing State Races By Louis Jacobson
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— This year, 26 states will hold elections for secretary of state. Currently, the GOP holds 25 secretary of state offices to 22 for the Democrats. Three states do not have a secretary of state.
— Our analysis suggests that six secretary of state races this year are competitive, including two in the Toss-up category.
— During the last election cycle that had this many secretary of state races, 2022, election denialism was a major issue, and in several purple states it helped Democrats defeat Republican nominees aligned with Donald Trump’s allegations of election fraud. With this installment, we have shifted two secretary of state races from Toss-up to Likely Democratic because Republicans nominated candidates associated with election denialism.

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                            September 8, 2026How to Waste $9 Trillion to NOT 'Save the Planet' By Stephen Moore
        The world has spent $9 trillion to combat climate change since 2020. That is a World War II-type number.

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                            September 8, 2026Jobs and Manufacturing Are on the Ballot By Daniel McCarthy
   American manufacturing is on the rebound, and that good news could hardly come at a better time for President Donald Trump, as Republicans gird themselves for the midterm elections just two months from now.

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                            September 8, 2026We Do Need Some Education – In Western Civilization By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
Pink Floyd told listeners, “We don’t need no education. We don’t need no thought control.” Yet maybe schoolchildren do need some education – specifically about Western civilization and the values that sustain it.

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                            September 4, 2026What a Stalin Biography Tells Us About Our Time By Michael Barone
   History illuminates the present. I've been reading Stephen Kotkin's widely and justly praised multivolume biography of Joseph Stalin and have encountered many passages that illuminate the present.
September 3, 2026The Governors: A Trio of Rating Changes Toward Democrats as They Chase a Rare Edge in Overall Seats Held By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— We continue to have just two Toss-ups in our gubernatorial ratings, but Alaska replaces Iowa this week, while Georgia remains a Toss-up.
— Democrats used to routinely control a majority of the state governorships, but Republicans have held a majority for almost all of the post-1994 period. Democrats have a chance to grab an edge this cycle, though.
September 2, 2026The Senate: Our Best Guess on the Toss-ups as Labor Day Nears By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Republicans probably retain a slight edge in the Senate, but that assessment has gotten harder to defend over the course of the summer.
— Read on for our best guesses on our five Senate Toss-up races.

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                            September 2, 2026Rent Control ... Still Doesn't Work By John Stossel
   In 2022, politicians in Minneapolis and St. Paul voted for rent control.

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                            September 2, 2026Stop the Democrats' Scheme to Pack the Supreme Court By Stephen Moore
   Democrats are in a quandary over the Supreme Court. Every four years, they've warned their voters that electing a Republican president will lead to more conservative Supreme Court justices. And yet since Ronald Reagan's election in 1980 through today, they've lost more presidential elections than they've won. Maybe the voters are telling Democrats something. Maybe Americans don't want the court packed with Sonia Sotomayors who make up or rewrite the laws as they see fit.

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                            September 1, 2026How to Tackle Domestic Extremists' Foreign Enablers By Daniel McCarthy
        Left-wing terrorism is a serious problem in the United States, though for political reasons it doesn't receive anything like the attention right-wing violence gets.

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                            August 28, 2026Democrats Try to Brush Aside 'Woke 1' By Michael Barone
   "'Woke 1' was crazy." So said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) on ABC News' "This Week" earlier this month.
August 27, 2026Keeping It Classy: A Revised Model for Forecasting Seat Swing in Midterm Senate Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The growing connection between presidential and Senate results has given Republicans a structural advantage in Senate elections.
— That advantage is particularly pronounced in Senate Class 2, the group of Senate seats being contested this year.
— Despite the collective Republican lean of the Senate seats being contested this year, the current average Democratic lead in generic ballot polling along with the large number of Republican seats up for election suggests that Democrats have a realistic chance of gaining at least four seats to take control of the upper chamber.

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                            August 26, 2026Ditching Net Zero By John Stossel
        What a difference a few years make.
August 26, 2026Three Rating Changes in Texas, All Towards Democrats By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The open Texas Senate race moves to Toss-up, as state Rep. James Talarico (D) leads in polls more often than not against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), who will need a rescue operation from national Republicans.
— Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), though much better-positioned than Paxton, is no longer in a completely Safe Republican race.
— As strange as it may seem, Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s (R, TX-15) reelection bid in a Trump +18 district now appears to be a genuine Toss-up.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The open Texas Senate race moves to Toss-up, as state Rep. James Talarico (D) leads in polls more often than not against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), who will need a rescue operation from national Republicans.
— Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), though much better-positioned than Paxton, is no longer in a completely Safe Republican race.
— As strange as it may seem, Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s (R, TX-15) reelection bid in a Trump +18 district now appears to be a genuine Toss-up.

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                            August 26, 2026Neither Party Represents People Like Me By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
If you listen to Democrat politicians describe their opponents—whether Republicans in general or, more specifically, President Donald Trump, MAGA, or the America First coalition—one of their favorite terms is “extremist.” Yet voters don’t appear to perceive ideological extremism quite as the rhetoric would suggest.

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                            August 25, 2026Why Hasan Piker Mocks a Murdered Man By Daniel McCarthy
   Hasan Piker is deeply envious of Charlie Kirk.

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                            August 25, 2026Is the USA Going Bankrupt? By Stephen Moore
   Thank God, no, we aren't going bust as a nation, despite our gargantuan $40 trillion national debt.

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                            August 21, 2026Socialists Shove the Resistance Aside in Florida By Michael Barone
   The most surprising result in the batch of primaries held this week over the vast stretch of America from Florida through Wyoming to Alaska was the defeat of famed anti-Trump whistleblower Alexander Vindman by state Rep. Angie Nixon in the contest for the Democratic nomination against appointed Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody in Florida.