January 22, 2026
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— In our first handicapping of state legislature control for the 2026 cycle, we find 15 chambers that are competitive—either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic. That’s slightly higher than the number we found at a similar point in the 2022 and 2024 election cycles.
— At this point in the 2026 cycle, the Republicans are playing defense in more chambers than the Democrats are. The GOP currently holds 8 of the competitive chambers, while the Democrats hold 4 of them. Meanwhile, both Alaska chambers are controlled by a cross-partisan alliance that is favored to continue, and Minnesota’s House chamber should revert to being tied once vacancies are filled by special elections later this month.
— Among the chambers we rate as competitive, 9 are Toss-ups. This category includes 6 Republican-held chambers (the Arizona Senate, the Arizona House, the Michigan House, the New Hampshire House, the Wisconsin Senate, and the Wisconsin House) and 2 Democratic-held chambers (the Michigan Senate and the Minnesota Senate), as well as the aforementioned, tied Minnesota House.
— In many states, Democrats are looking forward to a favorable cycle, driven by a reaction to President Donald Trump and his policies. However, in some states, voters may be tired of Democratic governance at the state level, creating cross-cutting pressures.
— In a number of legislative chambers controlled by Republicans, Democrats are hoping to ride a blue wave and break GOP supermajorities.