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Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 48%, Berkley (D) 45%

Incumbent Republican Dean Heller still holds a small lead over his Democratic challenger, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley, in Nevada’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada Voters shows Heller earning 48% support to Berkley’s 45%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Connecticut: Obama 51%, Romney 45%

President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in Connecticut.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama with 51% support to 45% for Romney.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Connecticut survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.  See methodology.

Nevada: Romney 47%, Obama 47%

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in Nevada.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Nevada Voters shows both candidates with 47% support. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted on October 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Connecticut Senate: Murphy (D) 51%, McMahon (R) 46%

Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy has now moved to five-point lead over Republican businesswoman Linda McMahon in Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Connecticut Voters shows Murphy with 51% of the vote, while McMahon earns 46% support. Two percent (2%) favor another candidate in the race, and one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The two candidates met in their first debate late Sunday morning. This poll was conducted later that day.

Additionally, Murphy’s lead is largely derived from “leaners.” These are people who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but indicate they are leaning towards one candidate when asked a follow-up question. Without leaners, it’s Murphy 46% and McMahon 45%. This is consistent with the notion that the state’s underlying Democratic tilt will help Murphy in the final analysis.

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This Connecticut survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.  See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 44%, Republicans 43%

Democrats now lead Republicans by one point on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending October 7, 2012.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democrat in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 43% would choose the Republican instead.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from October 1-7, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida Senate: Nelson (D) 52%, Mack (R) 41%

Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson is pulling away in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, now crossing the 50% mark for the first time.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Nelson earning 52% of the vote, while Republican Connie Mack picks up 41% support.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Colorado: Obama 49%, Romney 48%

The Colorado presidential race remains neck-and-neck as President Obama moves slightly ahead of Mitt Romney for the first time this year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters shows the president with 49% of the vote to Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Colorado was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is  onducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47%

President Obama is up slightly in the battleground state of Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows the president with 49% support to Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

54% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law

Most voters continue to favor repeal of President Obama’s national health care law, with fewer than one-in-five who believe the law will reduce health care costs as its supporters promised.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% of Likely U.S. Voters favor repeal of the health care law, while 39% oppose it. This includes 43% who Strongly Favor repeal and 31% who are Strongly Opposed. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 5-6, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 46%, Mandel (R) 46%

The U.S. Senate race in Ohio is now a tie.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and his Republican challenger Josh Mandel each earning 46% support. Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Ohio now shifts back from Safe Democrat to a Toss-up in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.  With the addition of Ohio, seven Senate races nationwide are Toss-Ups, but at this point it still appears likely that Democrats will retain control of the Senate.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending October 6, 2012

Close as the presidential race has been for months, it doesn’t take much to make a difference, and Mitt Romney’s debate win this past week appears to have impacted the numbers in the Key Three Swing States – Florida, Ohio and Virginia. It’s too early to say what impact Friday’s government jobs report will have.

New Rasmussen Reports polling taken after the debate finds Romney up two in Florida, up one in Virginia and down one in Ohio. It is virtually impossible for Romney to win the White House without winning at least two of these three states. They remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. 

Romney remains slightly ahead in Missouri and North Carolina, while Obama has more comfortable leads in New Mexico and Washington State.

Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

Mitt Romney now has swung back into the lead in the first post-debate survey of the presidential race in Florida.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Florida Likely Voters shows Romney with 49% of the vote to Obama’s 47%. Three percent (3%) are undecided at this point. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is  onducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia Senate: Kaine (D) 52%, Allen (R) 45%

Democrat Tim Kaine has now pulled away from Republican rival George Allen and has crossed the 50% mark for the first time.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds Kaine with 52% support to 45% for Allen.  Three percent (3%) are still undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on October 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 49%

The critical battleground state of Ohio remains a draw, with President Obama holding a one-point lead in the first post-debate survey of the contest there.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken last night, finds Obama with 50% support to Mitt Romney’s 49%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is  onducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

Virginia remains a nail-biter in the first post-debate survey of the key battleground state, with Mitt Romney edging slightly ahead.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters, taken last night, shows Romney earning 49% support to Obama’s 48%. Three percent (3%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on October 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology

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37% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, September 30.

That’s up a point from 36% the week before and matches the highest level of optimism since late June 2009, reached early last month.

From July 25 through December 11 of last year, voter confidence in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the George W. Bush administration, remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. That finding began climbing in early January of this year to a high of 34% in the second week of February and then regularly tracked in the high 20s to low 30s until the week of September 3-9.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen September 24-30, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Washington Senate: Cantwell (D) 57%, Baumgartner (R) 37%

Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Michael Baumgartner in Washington State’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Washington Voters finds Cantwell earning 57% support, while Baumgartner, a state senator, draws 37% of the vote. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Washington survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Carolina Governor: McCrory (R) 54%, Dalton (D) 38%

Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has taken his biggest lead yet over his Democratic rival, Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton, in North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely North Carolina voters shows McCrory, a Republican, with 54% support to Dalton’s 38%. One percent (1%) prefers another candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on October 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Missouri: Romney 49%, Obama 46%

Mitt Romney still holds a modest lead over President Obama in Missouri.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Missouri Voters, taken just before Wednesday night’s first presidential debate, shows Romney with 49% support to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Missouri survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.  See methodology.

Missouri Senate: McCaskill (D) 51%, Akin (R) 45%

The deadline has passed for embattled Congressman Todd Akin to withdraw from Missouri’s U.S. Senate race, and incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill has now crossed the 50% mark for the first time.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Missouri Likely Voters shows McCaskill with 51% of the vote to Akin’s 45%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Missouri survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.  See methodology