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North Carolina Senate: Tillis (R) 45%, Hagan (D) 44%

The North Carolina Senate race is now almost dead even.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely North Carolina Voters finds that State House Speaker Thom Tillis, the winner of Tuesday’s Republican primary, earns 45% support to incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on May 7-8, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

56% Doubt Medicare Will Pay All Their Benefits

Most voters still have a favorable opinion of Medicare but think they are unlikely to receive all their promised benefits.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 63% of Likely U.S. Voters have at least a somewhat unfavorable opinion of the Medicare system, including 23% with a Very Favorable opinion. Thirty-two percent (32%) view the federal health system for retired Americans unfavorably, including 10% with a Very Unfavorable view. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 5-6, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

27% Say U.S. is Heading in Right Direction

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending May 4.
 
This is unchanged from the week before and remains the lowest level of optimism since early December. The number who say the country is heading in the right direction had been in the narrow range of 28% to 30% for 16 out of the 20 weeks since then.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on April 28-May 4, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Trust GOP More on Economy, National Security

Republicans still hold the advantage in terms of voter trust on most major issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports, including the number one concern, the economy.

The economy remains the most important issue to voters in terms of how they will vote in the next congressional election,and Republicans have a 46% to 39% lead in voter trust in that area, according to new national telephone surveying. That ties the largest gap between the parties on the issue since May 2012. Since June 2009, the GOP has led in voter trust on the economy in all but one survey. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook 

Three national surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on April 23-24, April 27-28 and April 29-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 41%, Republicans 37%

Democrats have retaken the lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, May 4.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democrat in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 37% would choose the Republican instead.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. 

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from April 28-May 4, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

56% Expect Costs to Rise Under Health Care Law

Most voters still view the new national health care law unfavorably and expect it to push up health care costs.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of the law, down from a recent high of 45% two weeks ago, while 53% view it unfavorably. Still, both figures are an improvement from a month ago when favorables fell to 39%, while unfavorables climbed to a high of 58%. The latest findings include 21% with a Very Favorable opinion of the law and 40% with a Very Unfavorable one. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending May 3

The midterm congressional election season now begins in earnest, with primaries next week in North Carolina and later this month in several other states including Arkansas, Georgia and Kentucky. Messy intraparty disputes will be settled, and the final matchups will be set.

Tennessee Governor: Haslam (R) 57%, McKamey (D) 27%

Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam has a commanding lead over his leading potential Democratic challenger in Tennessee's 2014 gubernatorial race.

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Tennessee Voters shows Haslam picking up 57% of the vote to former Sullivan County Commissioner John McKamey’s 27%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while 11% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Tennessee Senate: Alexander (R) 51%, Ball (D) 25%

Incumbent Senator Lamar Alexander and his Republican primary challenger Joe Carr both far outdistance the top two Democratic hopefuls in Tennessee’s U.S. Senate race, but Alexander is the stronger of the two GOP candidates.

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Tennessee Voters finds that Alexander earns 50% support versus Democrat Terry Adams’ 26%. Ten percent (10%) like some other candidate, while 15% are undecided. (To see question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Tennessee was conducted on April 29-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama’s Full-Month Approval Holds Steady in April

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture.  To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.  

The president’s monthly job approval rating held steady at 47% in April, unchanged from the month before. Obama's approval rating had been climbing steadily in recent months from 45% in November, the lowest monthly finding in two years, to 49% in February. The president's daily job approval ratings took a hard hit in November from the problems surrounding the rollout of the new national health care law. Through much of November and early December, his job approval ratings were at the lowest levels of his entire presidency. Since then, however, his approval ratings have been running at levels seen for much of his time in the White House.

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Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 15,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

27% Say U.S. is Heading in Right Direction

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending April 27.

This finding is down two points from the previous week and is the lowest level of optimism since the second week of December. The number who say the country is heading in the right direction had been in the narrow range of 28% to 30% for 16 out of the 19 weeks since then.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on April 21-27, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Employment Index Drops Slightly in April from Six-Year High

The Rasmussen Employment Index which measures worker confidence dipped less than a point in April, coming off a six-year high.

At 95.6, worker confidence is down just slightly from the high of 96.2 reached in March. The index hit a low for 2013 of 81.2 in October but gained ground steadily after that. It stood at 90.7 a year ago.

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The survey of 9,087 working Americans was conducted in March 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Maine Governor: LePage (R) 40%, Michaud (D) 40%, Cutler (I) 14%

Democratic Congressman Mike Michaud is tied with incumbent Republican Paul LePage in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at Maine’s three-way race for governor.

A new statewide telephone survey finds Michaud and LePage each earning the support of 40% of Likely Maine Voters. Independent Eliot Cutler is a distant third with 14% of the vote. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 830 Likely Voters in Maine was conducted on April 23-25, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

43% View Attorney General Eric Holder Unfavorably

Attorney General Eric Holder, who has tangled repeatedly with Republicans in Congress and was forced last week to cancel a public appearance in Oklahoma in the face of public protests, remains one of the best-known and least-liked members of President Obama's Cabinet.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 24% of Likely U.S. Voters have a favorable opinion of Holder, while 43% view him unfavorably. This includes seven percent (7%) who view the nation's top law enforcement officer Very Favorably and 29% who view him Very Unfavorably.

One-in-three voters (33%) don't know enough about Holder to voice any kind of opinion of him, but most Cabinet members are far more anonymous than that as far as the public is concerned. Holder is less well-known but just as unpopular as Secretary of State John Kerry and departing Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius among the president's Cabinet officers. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on April 23-24, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 40%, Democrats 38%

Republicans have taken a two-point lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, April 27.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 40% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from April 21-27, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Maine Senate: Collins (R) 60%, Bellows (D) 24%

Republican Senator Susan Collins appears to be on an easy path to reelection in Maine this year.

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely Maine Voters support Collins, while her Democratic opponent, Shenna Bellows, earns 24% of the vote. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate in the race, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 830 Likely Voters in Maine was conducted on April 23-25, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

37% Favor Single-Payer Health Care System

A plurality of voters still opposes the national health care law’s insurance mandate and a single-payer health care system.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 40% of Likely U.S. Voters think the federal government should require every American to buy or obtain health insurance. Forty-five percent (45%) oppose this so-called individual mandate. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on April 19-20, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls Week of April 26

Who’s in charge here?

35% Think U.S. Doesn't Spend Enough on Schools

Voters still don’t really know how much the United States spends per student each year, but when given the exact figure, just one-third think it's not enough.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that only nine percent (9%) of Likely U.S. Voters correctly recognize that the United States spends about $11,000 per year per student. Forty-three percent (43%) think it's less that that, with 11% who believe the per-student figure is $3,000. Seven percent (7%) think the nation spends an average of $13,000 per student per year. Forty-one percent (41%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 24-25, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

45% Rate Obama's Leadership As Poor

The number of voters who rate President Obama’s leadership as poor is at the highest level of his entire presidency.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters now think the president is doing a poor job. That’s up five points from 40% a month ago and the president’s worst showing in monthly surveying since November 2008. Nearly as many (41%) rate the president’s job performance as good or excellent, although that’s down from 44% in the previous survey. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 20-21, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.