Trump Change: ‘The Donald’ Is Still Flying High

Iowa Republicans choose their presidential favorites on Monday, but right now belief among GOP voters nationwide that Donald Trump will be the party’s eventual nominee is again at its highest level to date.

The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly Trump Change survey finds that 74% of Likely Republican Voters believe Trump is likely to win the party’s nomination this year. That’s up slightly from last week and ties the record high last reached two weeks ago. The new finding includes 37% who say a Trump nomination is Very Likely, down from a high of 40% last week at this time. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This survey was taken Tuesday and Wednesday evenings after Trump first indicated he was likely to skip last night’s final GOP debate before the Iowa caucus, so the results were gathered prior to the actual debate itself and Trump’s competing event to raise funds for wounded veterans.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of all likely voters now believe Trump will be the Republican standard-bearer in the fall, up from last week’s 58% and the highest level of expectation since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly Trump Change survey last August. This includes 29% who think Trump is Very Likely to be the nominee, also a new high.

When Trump announced his candidacy in mid-June of last year, just 27% of Republicans – and 23% of all voters – said he was likely to end up as the 2016 GOP nominee.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters still say Trump is unlikely to win the Republican nomination, with 15% who consider it Not At All Likely. Among GOP voters, 22% see a Trump nomination as unlikely, but that includes only six percent (6%) who say it’s Not At All Likely.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 26-27, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Many pundits and political professionals argue that it was a bad move for Trump to skip the debate, but our earlier polling suggests otherwise.

Some polls show that Senator Ted Cruz of Texas may win the Iowa caucus with strong support among evangelical voters, but Trump has questioned whether being born outside the United States disqualifies Cruz from the presidency. Cruz is a U.S. citizen because he was born in Canada to a mother who was a U.S. citizen. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Republicans say they are less likely to vote for a candidate born outside the United States.

Men remain more confident than women that Trump will be the likely nominee.

Middle-aged voters continue to be the age group who feel strongest that Trump is Very Likely to win the nomination, but most voters of all ages are in general agreement that he is likely to be nominated.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of both Democrats and voters not affiliated with either major party now agree that Trump is the likely Republican nominee.

Among voters who Strongly Approve of the job President Obama is doing, just 48% believe Trump is likely to be nominated. That compares to 78% of those who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s job performance.

Republicans are more likely than Democrats and unaffiliated voters to prefer a candidate who has never held political office over one with political experience.

How do voters feel about politicians who hold onto one elective job while seeking another?

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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