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Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 43% Republicans 38%
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The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if the Congressional Election were held today, 43% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 38% would opt for the Republican (see crosstabs). That’s the closest Republicans have been on this measure since losing control of Congress in Election 2006. It’s also the first time in six months that the Democrat’s advantage has been in single digits. A month ago, the Democrats enjoyed a ten-point edge over the GOP.

Democrats lead by eleven among women while Republicans lead by three among men. A separate survey found that voters have fairly low expectations for Congress during this election year.

It remains to be seen whether this survey reflects lasting change or is merely a statistical aberration. However, it is worth noting that Republicans have also recently reduced the gap in partisan identification. This may be partly due to increased confidence in the War on Terror and the situation in Iraq.

Among unaffiliated voters, Democrats attract 32%, Republicans 26%. A month ago, Democrats enjoyed a 41% to 21% margin among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Just 13% of Americans currently give Congress good or excellent marks for their legislative efforts. That’s just a single point above the lowest rating of 2007 (see monthly results since Election 2006).

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters now see most Democrats in Congress as politically liberal. That’s up from 35% a month ago but down from 41% two months ago. Forty-one percent (41%) say most Democrats in Congress are politically moderate, down from 44% in December (see tracking history).

There was little change in perceptions of Republicans in Congress—45% see most Republicans in Congress as politically conservative while 36% see them as politically moderate (see tracking history).

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters say Democrats are Very Likely to retain control of Congress following the 2008 elections. Another 36% say they are Somewhat Likely to retain control. That totals 72%, little changed from December.

Democrats are still trusted more than Republicans on key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports.

Rasmussen Reports updates the Generic Congressional Ballot on a monthly basis. The Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates key polling stats for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates along with ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Date

Dem

GOP

01-15-08

43%

38%

12-09-07

46%

36%

11-04-07

46%

35%

10-04-07

48%

36%

09-04-07

50%

32%

08-01-07

47%

37%

07-17-07

46%

37%

06-21-07

46%

34%

05-31-07

45%

38%

05-03-07

47%

36%

04-10-07

45%

35%

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