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Clinton Leads Top Republicans in New Hampshire
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
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In Presidential politics, New Hampshire is best known as home of the first-in-the-nation primary. However, the tiny New England state is also one of the few true swing states in general election contests. Last time around, New Hampshire’s four Electoral College votes were cast for the Democrat John Kerry. In the four elections before that, the state went for the Republicans twice and the Democrats twice. Early in the 2008 cycle, New York Senator Hillary Clinton has a modest edge over two Republican hopefuls and a larger lead over two others. She leads former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani 44% to 40% and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 45% to 40%. The former First Lady holds double digit leads over Arizona Senator John McCain and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson. However, while attracting more support than any of the Republican hopefuls in New Hampshire, Clinton’s support stays below the 50% level in each match-up (Clinton attracts 44% against Giuliani, 45% against Romney and McCain, and 47% against Thompson). In national polling, Hillary Clinton struggles to reach the 50% mark because people have very strong feelings about her—both positive and negative. Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters say they will vote against Clinton if she is on the ballot in 2008. However, Clinton is dominating the Democratic field and is currently the party’s default nominee. Giuliani and Thompson have been topping the national GOP nomination polls for months. New Hampshire Governor John Lynch (D) earns good reviews from his constituents--64% of New Hampshire voters say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Twenty-two percent (22%) say fair while 13% believe Lynch is doing a poor job. President Bush earns positive ratings from barely a quarter of the state’s voters. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of the state’s voters give the President good or excellent marks while 16% say he’s doing a fair job and 56% say poor. As for the 2008 hopefuls, Clinton is viewed favorably by 51% of Colorado voters and unfavorably by 49%. Giuliani is the best liked of the Republican candidates, 50% favorable and 47% unfavorable. Romney, even though he is from neighboring Massachusetts, is viewed favorably by just 42% of the state’s voters and unfavorably by 56%. McCain, who earned his most notable political victory in the New Hampshire’s Presidential Primary during Election 2000, is now viewed favorably by 48% of New Hampshire voters and unfavorably by 49%. Thompson is the least known of the candidates, viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 48%. Later this week, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data for the New Hampshire Primary. While Giuliani is currently the GOP frontrunner, it is far from clear that he will be the nominee. Another GOP hopeful, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is hoping that his success in an Iowa straw poll will push him into the top-tier, but he’s not there yet. The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc. New Hampshire remains one of the key battleground states for Election 2008. Over the coming weeks, Rasmussen Reports will release general election polling data for all states decided by five percentage points or less in the last Presidential Election. Today’s releases include results for Florida, Colorado, and Ohio. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
New Hampshire Survey of 500 Likely Voters
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