Several weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports suggested that Hillary Clinton would remain the Democratic frontrunner following the Iowa caucuses--unless she lost by a double-digit margin. In the end, she lost by eight points and came in third (just fractionally behind John Edwards). While not quite a double-digit defeat, it was close enough and on Friday morning there was no frontrunner in the Democratic race.

As expected, Iowa Democrats enjoyed the highest turnout ever for their state’s Presidential caucuses. Many commentators noted that the Democrats were far more enthusiastic than their Republican counterparts. While it’s always impossible to determine exactly what generates such enthusiasm, Rasmussen Reports polling over the past few months in Iowa provides some clues. First, Democratic caucus participants are far more confident than Republicans that their party will win the White House in November. More than nine out of ten believe their team will win it all. Second, Democrats were more satisfied with their choices than Republicans and gave their candidates more favorable reviews. There are also intangibles such as the fact that by nominating either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, their party will make history in 2008.

The final Rasmussen Reports preview of the race, noted that if a large turnout actually materialized, Obama would be the beneficiary. It did, and he was.

That preview also noted that “the first opportunity to measure the impact of the fallout from Iowa will be in the Rasmussen Markets data.” The results are in and they show an entirely different dynamic in the Democratic race. In terms of winning the nomination, the latest numbers show Clinton at % and Obama at %.

These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa.

Prospects for other candidates and races are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page. We invite you would to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.