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Clinton Leads Giuliani, Romney by Three Percentage Points
Thursday, December 06, 2007
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The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton now attracts just 3% more support than either Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney in hypothetical general-election contests. Clinton leads both former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by an identical margin of 46% to 43% (see crosstabs). In both cases, the results are similar to the previous survey results. The Rasmussen Reports November 20 snapshot of the Clinton-Giuliani race, Clinton managed a four-point lead over Giuliani, 46% to 42%. The November Clinton-Romney election poll found the Democrat leading 47% to 42%. Clinton has been the Democratic frontrunner since the beginning of Election 2008. Although her lead is shrinking in national polls, Iowa, and New Hampshire, the former First Lady is still on top for the moment. Giuliani has consistently led national polling for the Republican nomination, although not in a dominant manner. This week, the surging Mike Huckabee displaced Giuliani atop the polls. Romney had been the leader in early voting states for most of the year. However, he too is currently a victim of Huck-a-mania and finds himself trailing slightly in Iowa. The former Governor of Massachusetts still leads in neighboring New Hampshire. In addition to fading a bit in primary polling, these three frontrunners have something else in common. All are viewed favorably by less than half of all voters. Romney, viewed favorably by just 40% and unfavorably by 48%, performs more weakly in match-ups against Senator Barack Obama and especially former Senator John Edwards. Giuliani, now viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 49%, is still perceived as the most electable GOP contender. But he is also seen as politically moderate or liberal by two-thirds of Republican voters. Clinton is now viewed favorably by 44%, unfavorably by 55%. Albeit by a single point in each case, these represent the lowest favorable and highest unfavorable for her since we started polling broad perceptions of the candidates last November. Throughout November her unfavorable rating outweighed her favorable rating. Both Giuliani and Clinton are struggling in the polls in Iowa, the first primary contest, though Clinton seems to be in a better position than Giuliani. Commentator Dick Morris believes both New Yorkers can survive early defeats and still capture their party’s nomination. Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Clinton and Giuliani have both been within two points of the 45% mark for fourteen consecutive polls dating back to May 1, 2007. The candidates have been within two points of each other on nine of those fourteen surveys. Currently, the three-poll rolling average shows Clinton with 45% support and Giuliani at 44%. Clinton had held a very modest advantage in five of the last six updates of the three-poll rolling average. At the beginning of the campaign, Giuliani had the advantage--during the first eight sets of three-poll averages, Giuliani was “ahead” in seven and tied with Clinton in the eighth. It’s worth noting that on individual polls with a four point margin of sampling error, Giuliani has been within four points of the 45% mark for sixteen consecutive surveys dating back to March. Clinton has been within four points of the 45% mark on twenty of twenty-one surveys dating back to December (see match-up history). Using the three-poll rolling average, Clinton currently leads Romney 47% to 42%. In eleven individual polls of this match-up, Clinton’s support has always stayed between 46% and 51%. Romney’s range has been from 40% to 44% (see match-up history). Crosstabs and Historical Data available for Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 800 Likely Voters
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