The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Wisconsin voters found John McCain and Barack Obama in a toss-up—it’s McCain 48% and Obama 46%. At the same time, McCain leads Hillary Clinton 50% to 39% in the Badger State.

Those numbers have changed little since a month ago, McCain leads both potential Democratic candidates nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Both Clinton and Obama lead McCain among women in Wisconsin while McCain leads both among men.

Overall, McCain is viewed favorably by 61% and unfavorably by 37%. Obama’s ratings are 54% favorable, 45% unfavorable. Clinton earns positive reviews from 39% and negative feedback from 55% in Wisconsin.

The economy is the most important issue for 39% of Wisconsin voters. Just 19% of Wisconsin voters give the U.S. economy a good or excellent rating, while 41% say it is in poor shape. Just 11% say the economy is improving while 69% say it is getting worse. Those numbers are similar to the national numbers.

The War in Iraq is seen as the most important electoral issue by 22%. In Wisconsin, over half of voters (53%) say the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror, while 21% say the terrorists are winning. Those numbers are a bit more optimistic than the national averages [link]. Forty-percent (40%) of Wisconsin voters believe the situation in Iraq will get better during the next six months, while 37% say it will get worse.

With release of this poll, Wisconsin shifts from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. This Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history, and national party identification trends.

Rasmussen Markets data immediately prior to release of this poll shows that Democrats are favored to win Wisconsin in November (current prices: Democrat % Republican %). Among Democrats, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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