In Virginia, John McCain leads Barack Obama by five percentage points in an early look at a possible general election match-up. It’s McCain 49% Obama 44%. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race also found McCain leading Hillary Clinton 51% to 41%.

Obama and Clinton are matched in a tight race for the Democratic nomination. While Rasmussen Markets data now shows Obama as the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, many believe it will not be decided until the Democratic National Convention.

Against both Democrats, McCain leads by double digits among men. He leads Clinton by three among women while trailing Obama by two. The Arizona Senator also leads both Democrats among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of Virginia voters, Obama by 55%, and Clinton by 48%.

When matched against McCain, Obama outperforms Clinton in most states polled recently by Rasmussen Reports. Nationally, Obama leads McCain and McCain leads Clinton.

The economy is the most important issue for 36% of Virginia voters. The War in Iraq comes in second with 19% and National Security comes in a close third with 17%. Nationally, Democrats are trusted more than Republicans on most key issues at this time.

In the state’s U.S. Senate race, Democrat Mark Warner continues to hold a huge lead over Republican Jim Gilmore.

As a result of this poll and other factors, Virginia has moved from Toss-Up to Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. This Calculator provides a daily update of Electoral College projections by aggregating data from a variety of sources including the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, analyst ratings and more.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Virginia is likely to be very competitive in general election (current prices: Republican % Democrat %). Overall, among Democrats, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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