In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has opened a fifteen percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton attracting 52% of the vote while Obama earns 37%. (See Video)

In late February, before Clinton’s comeback victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, the former First Lady’s lead in the Keystone State was just four percentage points. The big difference between that poll and the current result is found a among men. Clinton now leads by seventeen percentage points among women and eleven among men. In the previous survey, she was ahead by fifteen points among women but trails by fourteen among men.

The Clinton bounce is consistent with the national trends where she has recently taken the lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. A Rasmussen Reports video notes that the race for the Democratic nomination is now all about the Super Delegates. It is possible that when the primaries come to an end, Obama will have won the most pledged delegates while Clinton will have won the popular vote. That is especially true if she wins by a significant margin in Pennsylvania. Larry Sabato recently discussed the possiblity that this race may end up a brokered convention.

It is possible that the Clinton commercial about a 3:00 a.m. phone call at the White House has helped in Pennsylvania (see the commercial). Most Likely Democratic Primary voters have either seen the ad or have heard about it. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Likely Democratic Primary voters say that if such a call came, they’d want Clinton in the White House to answer it. Thirty percent (30%) would rather see Obama while 15% of these Democratic voters would prefer the Republican nominee, John McCain, to answer the call. Among men, 23% prefer McCain.

Yesterday, an Obama advisor expressed exasperation with the Clinton commercial and said that neither Clinton nor Obama is ready to handle that 3:00 a.m. phone call. The Clinton team happily circulated a YouTube video of those comments to reporters far and wide. John McCain also enjoyed the exchange and said he agreed that neither Democrat was ready to deal with a foreign policy crisis.

On another hot topic, 25% of Likely Primary Voters in Pennsylvania say that the North American Free Trade Agreement—NAFTA—has been good for the United States. Forty-three percent (43%) have the opposite view. Clinton leads by twelve percentage points among union members.

Clinton leads by twenty-two percentage points among those who say the economy is the top voting issue. She leads by twenty-eight among voters who view health care as the top priority. Obama leads by ten among those who say the War in Iraq is most important. Fifty percent (50%) of those likely to vote in the Primary view the economy as the most important voting issue for Election 2008. Eighteen percent (18%) say it’s the War in Iraq while 13% name Health Care.

In the Keystone State, Clinton is viewed favorably by 77% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Obama is viewed favorably by 71% overall.

Rasmussen Markets data just prior to release of this poll shows that Clinton is overwhelming favored to end up victorious in Pennsylvania (current prices: Clinton % Obama %). Overall, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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