The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in Oregon shows John McCain leading Hillary Clinton 45% to 42%. However, Barack Obama leads John McCain 49% to 40%. McCain leads Clinton among voters not affiliated with either major political party but Obama leads McCain.

Last August, McCain also led Clinton by three percentage points. Obama was not included in that round of polling.

The current poll finds Clinton leading McCain by four points among men but trailing the Republican by eleven points among women. Obama leads McCain by fourteen percentage points among women and by five among men.

McCain earns the vote from 76% of political conservatives when matched against Clinton. He attracts 69% of conservatives when matched against Obama.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 48% of voters in Oregon, unfavorably by 50%. Those figures are little changed since August.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%. That’s an improvement since August when just 46% had a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator.

Obama is the most popular of all three candidates at this time—66% favorable, 31% unfavorable.

Oregon has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in five consecutive Presidential Elections. However, even during that stretch, no Democrat has earned more than 52% support in the state. Three of the five Democratic victories were earned with 47% of the vote or less. In Election 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush in Oregon 51% to 47%.

Obama currently outperforms Clinton in several other recent state polls including Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada. While these same dynamics are also found in national polling, it should be noted that the state polls were conducted at a time when Obama’s support was spiking following a series of eight straight primary and caucus victories. In Missouri, both Clinton and Obama are essentially even with McCain.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are strongly favored to win Oregon’s 7 Electoral College votes (current prices: Democrat % Republican %). Among Democrats, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.