Oregon has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in five consecutive Presidential Elections. However, even during that stretch, no Democrat has even earned more than 52% support in the state. Three of the five Democratic victories were earned with 47% of the vote or less.

If New York Senator Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee in Election 2008, it may take some work to keep Oregon in the Democratic column--52% of the state’s voters currently have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic frontrunner.

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In general election Match-ups with top Republican candidates, the Oregon landscape looks very competitive. Clinton currently trails Arizona Senator John McCain by three percentage points. The former First Lady holds a statistically insignificant single point edge over both Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson while leading Mitt Romney by five.

In all four match-ups, Clinton’s support stays in a very narrow range from 39% to 42%. The Republicans attract between 37% and 42%.

The races in Oregon are competitive despite Clinton’s unpopularity because none of the Republicans are terribly well liked either. While Clinton’s unfavorable rating is at 52%, three of the Republican hopefuls are in the same range. Romney is viewed unfavorably by 48%, Giuliani and McCain by 47%. Fred Thompson is viewed unfavorably by 36% of Oregon voters.

On the positive side, McCain and Giuliani are viewed favorably by 46% of Oregon voters, Thompson by 45%, Clinton by 45%, and Romney by 39%.

Clinton is the Democratic frontrunner while Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney have all shown strength in the GOP Presidential nomination competition. Rasmussen Reports recently released other general election polling data for Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

Discomfort with the choice between Clinton and a Republican, leads to support for a third party candidate ranging from 14% to 17% in Oregon.

President Bush is a drag on Republican prospects in the state—just 34% or Oregon voters say the President is doing a good or excellent job while 53% rate his performance as Poor.

Forty percent (40%) of voters say that Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski is doing a good or an excellent job. Just 26% say poor.

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