The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Jersey’s Democratic Primary shows Hillary Clinton with an 18-point advantage over Barack Obama.

It’s Clinton 45%, Obama 27%, and John Edwards at 11%. Dennis Kucinich is supported by 2% and 14% are not sure.

Clinton leads Obama by 23 points among women and 11 points among men.

The former First Lady is viewed favorably by 82% of Likely Primary Voters while 78% have a favorable opinion of Obama.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of Clinton voters are “certain” they will vote for her and not change their mind. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Obama voters are that “certain.”

Eighty-six percent (86%) say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the general election if nominated. That includes 45% who say she would be Very Likely to win.

Seventy-four percent (74%) say that Obama would have a chance to win the White House if nominated including 33% who say he would be Very Likely to win.

Just 56% believe Edwards would have a chance at defeating the Republican in November. A commentary by Dick Morris says it is time for Edwards to get out of the race because he holds the fate of Clinton and Obama in his hands.

Among African-American voters, Obama leads Clinton 59% to 23%. This mirrors a trend seen nationally and in other states such as South Carolina. An Inside Report by Robert Novak suggests that Clinton comments about vetting Obama may disturb the party’s racial chemistry.

Overall, Clinton retains a modest national lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Among New Jersey Republicans, John McCain has a slight lead over Rudy Giuliani.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Clinton a % chance of winning the New Jersey Primary and McCain a % chance. In terms of winning the nomination, the markets gives Clinton a % chance of winning the Democratic nomination and Obama a % chance. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll.

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