The final Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the New Hampshire Republican Primary shows John McCain clinging to a statistically insignificant one percentage point lead over Mitt Romney. It’s McCain 32% Romney 31%.

The current poll shows Mike Huckabee with 10% of the vote, Rudy Giuliani close and Ron Paul at 8%. Fred Thompson earns 3%, while 3% say they’ll vote for some other candidate and 4% are not sure.

As noted yesterday, John McCain is facing an unusual two-front challenge in this race. He is competing with Mitt Romney for votes and with Barack Obama for Independent voters who can choose to vote in either the Republican or the Democratic Primary on Tuesday.

Romney has a slight edge among Republicans who will participate but McCain leads by eleven among Independents. The final result will be determined primarily by how many Independent voters choose to take part in the GOP Primary. The higher that number, the better for McCain. A smaller percentage of Independents would be better for Romney.

Ideologically, Romney leads by seven among conservatives but trails by nearly twenty points among political moderates.

A commentary by Robert Novak looks at Mitt’s and Hillary’s problems. A separate Rasmussen Reports survey shows Huckabee leading in South Carolina with McCain in second and Romney thirteen points off the pace.

Yesterday’s data showed that McCain is seen as politically moderate by 53% of New Hampshire’s Likely Republican Primary Voters. He is seen as conservative by 25% and liberal by 20%. Romney is seen as conservative by 47% and moderate by 43%.

Nationally, there is no clear frontrunner in either the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll or the Rasmussen Markets data. However, a Rasmussen Reports analysis suggests that victory in New Hampshire would make McCain the clear frontrunner. In New Hampshire’s Democratic race, Barack Obama has a solid lead over Hillary Clinton.

As noted Sunday, McCain appeals to more Primary Voters as a general election candidate than any other candidate in the field. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Likely Primary Voters say they’d be at least somewhat likely to vote for McCain in November. Saturday’s report noted that McCain is also seen as the most electable Republican.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that John McCain has an % chance of winning in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney is given a % chance. The numbers referenced in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.