Missouri is a classic swing state in Presidential Elections that almost always awards its Electoral College Votes to the candidate who wins the White House. George W. Bush won those 11 Electoral Votes four years ago by winning the popular vote 53% to 46%.

Looking ahead to this November, the Show-Me State could play a pivotal role once again. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds John McCain locked in an extraordinarily close race with either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. It’s McCain 43%, Clinton 42% and McCain 42%, Obama 40%. In both cases, McCain’s lead is statistically insignificant. The fact that nearly one-in-five Missouri voters remains uncommitted or is seeking some other candidate means that there is likely to be a lot of campaigning here this fall.

While in Missouri it makes little difference which Democrat is nominated, recent polling in both Colorado and New Hampshire show Obama outperforming Clinton in those states. National polling, updated daily, also shows Obama currently performing better than Clinton in match-ups with McCain.

In Missouri, both Democrats lead by nearly ten points among women and trail by double digits among men.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008. Among these voters, both Democrats lead McCain by more than twenty percentage points.

Seventeen percent (17%) say the War in Iraq is the top issue and both Democrats have a narrowed edge over McCain among these voters.

Ten percent (10%) name immigration as a top issue and 10% say national security. For voters focused on these topics, McCain holds overwhelming leads in the fifty-to-sixty percentage point range over both Democrats.

Ten percent (10%) name health care as a top issue. Among these voters, Clinton has a substantial edge over McCain and Obama a more modest advantage.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of the state’s voters, Obama by 50%, and Clinton by 47%.

Rasmussen Markets data shows Missouri to be a toss-up at this time, with both parties given a roughly equal chance of victory (current pricing: Democrats % Republicans %).

Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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