John McCain has opened a significant lead over both potential Democratic opponents in the state of Missouri. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds John McCain leading Hillary Clinton by nine percentage points, 50% to 41%. He leads Barack Obama by an even larger margin, 53% to 38%.

Those figure reflect a major gain for the presumptive Republican nominee over the past month. In February, he was essentially even with both Democrats in Missouri. Since that time, however, McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination and the two Democrats have been locked in a tight contest that has gotten nastier by the day. National polling shows similar trends and McCain leads both Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Missouri, McCain attracts support from 87% of Republicans against both Democrats and holds a modest lead among unaffiliated voters. Clinton earns 79% of the vote from Democrats while Obama attracts 67%. Among men, McCain leads both Democrats by a wide margin. Among women, he has a nine-point advantage over Obama but trails Clinton by five.

McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of the state’s voters, Obama by 47%, and Clinton by 45%. For McCain, that reflects a five-point gain since last month. Both Democrats have slipped two percentage points during that same time frame.

Forty-two percent (42%) say the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008. That figure includes 51% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans. Just 17% rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Thirty-seven percent (37%) rate the economy as fair while a plurality of 44% say the current state of the economy is poor. Ten percent (10%) say the economy is getting better while 64% say it is getting worse. Nationally, the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that consumer and investor confidence is near the lowest levels of the past seven years.

Sixteen percent (16%) say the War in Iraq is the top issue. Forty-three percent (43%) believe the situation in Iraq will get better over the next six months while 30% believe it will get worse. Fifty-four percent (54%) believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror while 19% believe the terrorists are winning. Those figures are slightly more optimistic than the national average.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Missouri voters believe that American society is generally fair and decent. Among these voters, McCain leads Clinton by thirty percentage points and Obama by thirty-four.

Twenty-two percent (22%) believe that society in the U.S. is generally unfair and discriminatory. Among these voters, both Democrats lead McCain by roughly a four-to-one margin.

Missouri is a classic swing state in Presidential Elections that almost always awards its Electoral College Votes to the candidate who wins the White House. George W. Bush won those 11 Electoral Votes four years ago by winning the popular vote 53% to 46%.

With release of this poll, Missouri will switch from Toss-Up status to Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. This Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history, and national party identification trends.

Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. He also hold a solid lead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arkansas. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California (see summary of recent state general election polling). A recent Rasmussen Reports analysis looks at one of the reasons for McCain’s recent gains--the impact of Pastor Wright and Obama’s speech.

Rasmussen Markets data prior to release of this poll suggested that Republicans were narrowly favored to win Missouri this November (current prices: Republican % Democrat %). Market results suggest that Obama has a % chance of becoming the next President of the United States. Expectations for McCain are at %. Among Democrats, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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