The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds New York Senator Hillary Clinton with a two-point advantage over Arizona Senator John McCain in the race for the White House. It’s Clinton 47% McCain 45%.

Clinton leads by seven among women. McCain leads by three among men.

While the “lead” is statistically insignificant, it is a big improvement for the former First Lady. McCain has led Clinton in the three previous Rasmussen Reports election polls of this match-up. In fact, earlier in January, McCain had his biggest advantage of the season over Clinton, leading by twelve. That poll now looks more like an aberration as it was the only time in seventeen polls of this match-up that Clinton’s support has been anywhere but the mid-40 percent range.

McCain’s support, at 45% is down from the three previous surveys which each showed him with support ranging from 47% to 49%.

The current election poll also shows McCain trailing Barack Obama. As has become the norm, Obama’s advantage over McCain is slightly larger than Clinton’s. It’s Obama 46% McCain 41%. Earlier in January, McCain had held a slight lead over Obama.

Nationally, Clinton continues to lead Obama in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. On the Republican side, McCain has a slight lead nationally over Mitt Romney. Romney trails both Clinton and Obama in general election polling.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Obama and McCain are tied at 44%. Both men have been within four points of the 45% mark for six consecutive individual polls.

Using a three-poll rolling average, McCain leads Clinton by five percentage points. With the exception of the earlier January poll, however, both Clinton and McCain have been within four points of the 45% mark for seven consecutive polls.

Rasmussen Markets data shows Clinton with a % chance of winning the Democratic nomination while Obama has a % chance. On the Republican side, McCain is now given a % chance of winning the nomination. He is followed by Mitt Romney at %, Rudy Giuliani at %, and Mike Huckabee at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll.

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