The Iowa Democratic caucuses remain a three-person race that is far too close to call.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus for 2008 finds Hillary Clinton at 27%, Barack Obama at 25%, and John Edwards at 24%. Bill Richardson is the only other Democrat in double-digits at 10% while Joe Biden earns 4% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants.

These results reflect little change from a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted earlier in the month. In the previous survey Clinton had 29% support with Edwards at 25% and Obama at 24%. While the race in Iowa remains very close, Clinton retains a solid lead in the national polls and double digit leads in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. Many believe that those figures may change based upon what ultimately happens on January 3 in Iowa.

Currently, in Iowa, Clinton attracts 30% of the vote from women while Obama earns 26% and Edwards 22%. Among men, it’s Edwards 26%, Clinton 24%, and Obama 23% (see crosstabs).

In terms of second-choices in Iowa, John Edwards tops the list of candidates. He is the second choice for 28% of likely caucus participants. Obama is the second choice for 18%, Clinton for 16%, and Richardson for 15%. Second choice preferences are especially important given the nature of the Iowa caucuses. In a particular caucus setting, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, their supporters will be re-allocated to other candidates.

There are many challenges to polling a caucus, primarily around the question of who will actually participate. Those challenges are magnified this year by the timing of the caucus on January 3 forcing candidates and their teams to explore tactful methods of contacting voters during the holiday season.

When only voters who are “certain” they will participate in the caucus are included in the totals, Obama is supported by 26%, Edwards by 25% and Clinton by 23%.

However, when only those who are certain which candidate they will support are included, it’s Clinton 27%, Obama 25% and Edwards 22%.

Among those who have participated in a caucus before, it’s Edwards 25%, Clinton 24% and Obama 22%.

Collectively, these results show that the caucuses remain a three-way race and no candidate has a measurable advantage at this time.

Just 8% of Likely Caucus Participants say that there is a good chance they will change their mind between now and January 3. That figure includes 10% of Edwards’ supporters, 7% of those for Obama, and 5% for Clinton.

Overall, 68% of both Clinton supporters and Obama supporters say they are certain they will vote for their candidate. Earlier in the month, 57% of Clinton supporters were certain of their support along with just 45% of Obama supporters. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Edwards supporters currently say they are certain to vote for him. That’s up from 52% earlier in the month.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of Likely Caucus Participants think that Clinton is likely to win the caucuses. An identical number think that Obama is likely to win. Nineteen percent (19%) say Edwards is the likely winner, 3% name somebody else, and 5% are not sure.

When it comes to the Democratic nomination, 42% believe Clinton will emerge as the ultimate nominee, 28% say Obama and 17% Edwards.

Thirty-five percent (35%) say that the War in Iraq is their most important voting issue while 23% name the economy and 18% cite health care.

Among Democrats who name Iraq as the top voting issue, 28% support Obama, 25% Clinton, and 23% Edwards. For those who name the economy as the top issue, it’s Clinton 30%, Edwards 27%, and Obama 21%. For those who said health care is the number one issue, 38% prefer Clinton, 22% Edwards, and 19% Obama.

Democratic caucus participants are focused on an entirely different set of priorities from Republican caucus participants. Among the GOP voters, immigration was named the top issue by 25%. Only 5% of Democratic caucus participants say it’s their top issue. In the GOP caucus, Mike Huckabee at 28% and Mitt Romney at 25% have made it a two-man race.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Likely Caucus Participants have a favorable opinion of Edwards, 79% say the same about Obama, and 76% offer a positive assessment of Clinton. Richardson is viewed favorably by 69%, and Biden by 57% and Dennis Kucinich by 33%.

All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, all showed a very competitive race with Clinton, Obama, and Edwards in a virtual tie for the lead. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.