Despite all the hoopla and negative campaigning and Oprah, the Democratic race in Iowa remains pretty much the same as its been for the past month—way too close to call. In three straight Rasmussen Reports polls conducted over the past month, each of the leading candidates has seen their level of support stay in a very narrow range—three percentage points or less. Given that the poll has a three-percentage point margin of sampling error, the results are remarkably stable.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus finds that Hillary Clinton is supported by 29% of Likely Caucus Participants. That’s up two points from two weeks ago and identical to her level of support a month ago.

Barack Obama enjoys 26% support in the most recent poll. He was at 25% two weeks ago and 24% a month ago.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll finds John Edwards at 22%, down a bit from 24% two weeks ago and from 25% a month ago. Edwards now trails Clinton by seven percentage points. He trailed by three to four points in the earlier Rasmussen Reports surveys.

Bill Richardson has dropped three points from the last poll and is now supported by 7% while Joe Biden picks up a point to the 5% level of support. Two percent (2%) of Likely Caucus Participants favor Dennis Kucinich, 1% support Chris Dodd, and 8% are undecided.

The stability of the Democratic race in Iowa stands in stark contrast to the dynamics of Iowa’s Republican caucuses. In that contest, surging Mike Huckabee has opened a significant lead over Mitt Romney in what is currently becoming a two-person race.

While the race in Iowa is fairly stable at the moment and too close to call, other states have begun to look more competitive. A recent Rasmussen Reports analysis noted that in some ways, the campaign is the same as it’s been all year. But, recently, the entire dynamic of the Democratic race has a different feel to it. New polling data on the New Hampshire Primary will be released later on Wednesday morning. Clinton recently lost her lead in South Carolina and has been below the 40% level of support for two consecutive weeks in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

As in earlier Iowa surveys, Obama does best among upper-income voters while Clinton is strongest at the opposite end of the spectrum.

Among women, it’s Clinton 34%, Obama 25%, and Edwards 21%. Among men, Obama attracts 28% support, Clinton 23% and Edwards 22%.

There are many challenges to polling a caucus, primarily around the question of who will actually participate. Those challenges are magnified this year by the timing of the caucus on January 3 forcing candidates and their teams to explore tactful methods of contacting voters during the holiday season. A recent Rasmussen Reports telephone poll found that only 15% of Americans look forward to “discussing politics with passion” during the holidays.

Different assumptions of who will show up produce slightly different results, but all point to a toss-up at the moment.

- When only voters who are “certain” they will participate are included in the totals, Obama is supported by 27%, Clinton by 26%, and Edwards by 23%.

- Among those who have participated in a caucus before, it’s Edwards 25%, Clinton 25% and Obama 23%.

- However, when only those who are certain which candidate they will support are included, it’s Clinton 31%, Obama 25% and Edwards 21%.

Another factor that makes polling in Iowa a challenge is the importance of second-choices. In a particular caucus setting, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, their supporters will be re-allocated to other candidates.

John Edwards is currently the second choice for 28% of likely caucus participants. Obama is the second choice for 20%, while Clinton and Richardson are the second choice for 14%.

Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich currently are below the 15% threshold statewide. Among their supporters, Edwards is the second choice for 29% support, Obama 24%, and Clinton15%.

Just 10% of Likely Democratic Caucus Participants say that a candidate’s faith of religion is Very Important in their voting decision. That’s less than a third of the total from Republican Caucus Participants. Overall, 36% of Democratic caucus-goers say a candidates faith is at least somewhat important. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republican caucus goers say the same thing.

Democrats are more confident than Republicans—90% of Democratic caucus-goers say that their party will win the White House in 2008. Just 65% of Republicans have such confidence in their party’s victory.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Democratic caucus-goers say that the War in Iraq is their most important voting issue while 24% name the economy and 21% cite health care.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Likely Caucus Participants have a favorable opinion of Edwards, 79% say the same about Obama, and 74% offer a positive assessment of Clinton. Richardson is viewed favorably by 69%, and Biden by 59% and Dennis Kucinich by 32%. All those figures are little changed over the past two weeks.

Seventy-percent (70%) of Likely Caucus Participants say they are certain to support their current candidate and will not change their mind before January 3. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Clinton’s voters are “certain” they will vote for her. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Obama’s supporters are certain along with 66% of those who support Edwards.

Collectively, these results show that the caucuses remain a three-way race and no candidate has a measurable advantage at this time.

All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, all showed a very competitive race with Clinton, Obama, and Edwards in a virtual tie for the lead. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.

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