After a recent tightening of her match-ups with two leading GOP contenders, Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton now enjoys a modest advantage over each. Clinton leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani 48% to 42% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Election 2008 (see crosstabs).

The former First Lady leads former Senator Fred Thompson 48% to 42% as well.

Senator Clinton trailed Giuliani by a couple points in the previous Rasmussen Reports election poll of this race. However, she enjoyed modest leads, similar to the current results in our October 9 election poll (see history).

The advantage in the Giuliani-Clinton match-up has snapped back and forth like a ping-pong ball all year long. Only once since November has either candidate reached 50% support: Giuliani, in February, when he led 52% to 43%. Neither candidate has fallen below 40% support. On several occasions—most recently in June and July, for three polls in a row—Clinton and Giuliani have been just a point apart, or tied.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Clinton and Giuliani have both been within two points of the 45% mark for twelve consecutive polls dating back to May 1, 2007. The candidates have been within two points of each other on seven of those twelve surveys.

Still, while the candidates have hovered consistently around that 45% level of support, a trend in Clinton’s favor can easily be detected. During the first eight sets of three-poll averages, Giuliani was “ahead” in seven and tied with Clinton in the eighth. Clinton has held the advantage in the last four updates of the three poll rolling average. She currently leads 47% to 43%.

It’s worth noting that on individual polls with a four point margin of sampling error, Giuliani has been within four points of the 45% mark for fourteen consecutive surveys dating back to March. Clinton has been within four points of the 45% mark on eighteen of nineteen surveys dating back to December.

As for Fred Thompson, right out of the staring gate he was on a par with the former First Lady. In March, while still pondering whether to run, he led Clinton by a single percentage point. Those results probably reflected a desire for many people to vote for or against Clinton rather having much to do with Thompson. By August, as Thompson was getting more identified as a Republican contender, Clinton seemed to start breaking away.

A look at the three-poll rolling average for this match-up shows Clinton at 45% or 46% in the early match-ups moving up to the 48% to 50% range for the last four sets of results. Thompson started out at 44% or 45% for the first sets of data and has been in the 40% to 43% range more recently.

Currently, in the three poll rolling average, Clinton leads Thompson 49% to 41%.

Meanwhile, Clinton has lost ground in New Hampshire, where she now leads by only ten points. However, she is still the Democratic frontrunner and it is not clear whether her much-discussed stumble in the most recent Democratic debate will provide challengers with a chance to overcome her lead.

Clinton stumbled on the question of whether illegal immigrants should receive driver's licenses. Clinton seemed to equivocate, but a Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found little equivocation among the general public--77% of Americans oppose making licenses available to those in the country illegally. A separate national survey found strong public support for having police officers routinely check the immigration status of those pulled over for traffic violations.

At present Hillary Clinton is viewed favorably by 47% of likely voters, unfavorably by 50%. Rudy Giuliani is viewed favorably by 47%, unfavorably by 47%. Feelings about Clinton remain much stronger. She's viewed Very Unfavorably by 34% versus 22% for Giuliani, 14% for Thompson.

Overall, Thompson is viewed favorably by 40%, unfavorably by 43%. Seventeen percent (17%) still can't say whether they like or dislike him.

Crosstabs and Historical data available for Premium Members only.