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Democrats Have Highest Confidence in Clinton’s Electability
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Every primary season contains some discussion of the trade-offs voters consider between a candidate’s position on the issues and their electability.

However, among Democrats in 2008, earlier surveys have found that perceived ideological differences between the party’s leading Presidential hopefuls are relatively small. That has led to a fairly significant amount of discussion around the question of electability—a question addressed in recent Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys.

Three-out-of-four Democrats (75%) believe that if Clinton wins the nomination, she is at least somewhat likely to win the White House in 2008. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats say the same about Edwards and 69% think Obama is at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. However, there is a higher degree of confidence in Clinton than other candidates. Forty-one percent (41%) of Democrats say that Clinton is Very Likely to win the White House if nominated. Just 26% say the same about Obama and 24% have that confidence in Edwards.

When the question is asked of all voters, not just Democrats, a similar pattern emerges. If nominated, Clinton is considered at least somewhat likely to win by 53% of all voters. Fifty-four percent (54%) say the same about Edwards and 55% about Obama. However, 24% of all voters say that if Clinton is nominated, she is Very Likely to win it all. Just 17% say that Obama is Very Likely to win the White House while 16% say a victory in November is Very Likely for Edwards.

The picture looks much different, however, among unaffiliated voters. Among this important segment of the voting population, 50% say Obama is at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Forty-eight percent (48%) say the same about Edwards and just 42% see a Clinton victory as Somewhat or Very Likely.

In the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Clinton remains the clear frontrunner with Obama in second place and Edwards in third. Edwards generally outperforms Clinton and Obama in general election match-ups against Republicans. Among Democrats, Clinton has more core opposition than any other candidate—43% of all voters say they will definitely vote against her in 2008.

Data also shows that just 54% of Democrats believe Al Gore would win the White House even if he entered the race and won the nomination.

Data on the perceived electability of Republicans will be released next week.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Dem Candidate

Likely

Not Likely

Hillary Clinton

53%

41%

Barack Obama

55%

42%

John Edwards

54%

42%

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