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Election 2008: California Presidential Election
California: Obama 50% McCain 43%
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In California, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 50% to 43%. That's an improvement for McCain who trailed Obama by fifteen points in March.

If Hillary Clinton is able to come back and win the Democratic nomination, she holds a slightly smaller lead over McCain, 47% to 42%. Clinton led McCain by seven points a month ago.

At the time this poll was released, Rasmussen Markets data showed Democrats were overwhelmingly favored to win California's 54 Electoral College votes. Current expectations from the Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Democrats have a % chance of winning the state in November. California is rated as a "Strongly Democratic" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Nationally, the race between McCain and either Democrat remains competitive in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll.

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of the state's voters, McCain by 48%, and Clinton by 47%. Those figures have changed little in the past month.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of the state's voters say that the economy is the most important issue of Election 2008. Twenty-one percent (21%) say that the War in Iraq is the top issue while 11% name Immigration as the highest priority. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of the state's voters are pro-choice on the issue of abortion. Just 31% are pro-life.

There is some familiarity with the candidate's positions on these issues. By a 47% to 13% margin, California voters know that McCain is pro-life (40% are not sure). By a 61% to 7% margin, voters know that Obama is pro-choice. By a 61% to 24% margin, voters in California oppose drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants. However, 52% are not sure where McCain stands on the issue and 56% do not know Obama's position.

If voters learned the candidate's positions on these issues, it is not likely to create a major shift in the race. Just 27% of voters in California say George W. Bush is doing a good or excellent job as President. Fifty-four percent (54%) say he is doing a poor job. Thirty-two percent (32%) say that Governor Schwarzenegger is doing a good or excellent job while 34% give him poor marks. Those ratings are slightly lower than a month ago.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdgeâ„¢ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

California Survey of 500 Likely Voters
April 16, 2008

Hillary Clinton (D) vs.
John McCain (R)

Hillary Clinton (D)

47%

John McCain (R)

42%

Barack Obama (D) vs.
John McCain (R)

Barack Obama (D)

50%

John McCain (R)

43%

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