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A Good Time to Be John McCain
Thursday, December 20, 2007
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This is a good time to be John McCain. A man whose Presidential campaign was left for dead last summer has picked up a round of significant endorsements from the Manchester Union Leader, the Des Moines Register, the Boston Globe, and Senator Joe Lieberman. He has the highest favorable rating (52%) and the smallest number committed to voting against him (33%) of any Presidential candidate in either party (see key stats for all Republican and Democratic candidates). In the wake of his recent endorsements, McCain has moved into third place in Iowa and within a few points of the lead in New Hampshire. As a bonus, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain with a two-point advantage over Illinois Senator Barack Obama in a general election match-up (see crosstabs). The two candidates were tied at 44% in late November. McCain also has a two-point edge over Hillary Clinton. The battle between Senator McCain and Senator Obama has been very close in recent months. In fact, over the past three months, four polls have found McCain’s support holding between 43% and 45% while Obama’s range has been virtually identical—43% to 46%. The average of the last three polls show the candidates tied, 44% to 44% (see history of this match-up). That’s quite a change from the summer when McCain was catching flak for his vigorous support of a very unpopular immigration bill. At that time, Obama led the Republican hopeful by as many as nine points. During that stretch, McCain’s favorable ratings fell below the 50% mark in his home state. However, the most recent polling in Arizona shows that his reputation has recovered. Whether this recovery for McCain is lasting or merely a last hurrah for a veteran candidate remains to be seen. But, the fact that McCain is still in the running is something of a miracle that few would have expected when his campaign imploded last summer. McCain remains one of five GOP candidates with double digit support in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and one of five with at least a plausible path to the nomination. While McCain has been given another chance, the chances may be running out for another man seeking the GOP nod--former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson. When McCain was struggling last summer, Thompson was soaring by just hinting that he might enter the contest. Once he did, however, his poll numbers started moving south. In the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll, Obama leads Thompson by seven. That’s unchanged since late November. Since March, he has trailed Obama every time that Rasmussen Reports have conducted a poll of that match-up. Obama is now viewed favorably by 48% of voters nationwide, Thompson by 45%. Obama, very much in the running in the early Democratic primaries, is essentially even with Hillary Clinton in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Nationally, he trails Clinton by double digits in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. While it’s a good time to be John McCain—or Barack Obama—the question remains wide open as to which candidate will capture the nomination of the two major parties. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESWest Virginia: Clinton 56% Obama 27% Electoral College: Democrats 200 Republicans 189 Leaners 111 Toss-Up 38 Rasmussen Reports to Stop Tracking Democratic Race Bush Job Approval Falls to Another All-Time Low Obama's Vice-President By Gerald M. Pomper Oregon: Obama 51% Clinton 39% Kentucky: Clinton 56% Obama 31% Minnesota Senate: Coleman 50% Franken 43% Missouri: McCain Opens Lead Over Both Democrats Advertisment
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