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81% of Democrats Think Clinton Can Win if Nominated
Friday, October 19, 2007
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The fall of 2007 is a good time to be Senator Hillary Clinton. Her lead has been growing in national polls for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, her negatives have held steady while those for her challengers have been growing, she leads now in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that Clinton is seen as the most electable candidate in either party. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say that Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated by her party. That’s up from 75% a month ago and the current total includes an astounding 50% of Democrats who believe she is Very Likely to win it all if nominated. No other candidate—Republican or Democrat—comes close to that figure. A month ago, 41% of Democrats thought Clinton was Very Likely to win. About the only concern for Clinton in the numbers is that the election will be held in the fall of 2008, not this year. Not only that, of course, but the first actual votes to be cast in Election 2008 are still a few months away. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Democrats think Senator Barack Obama is at least somewhat likely to win the general election if nominated. However, just 23% believe he is Very Likely to do so. A month ago, 69% said that Obama was Somewhat (43%) or Very (26%) Likely to win if nominated. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey found that Democratic voters are beginning to see Obama as more politically liberal than Clinton. Perceptions of electability for former Senator John Edwards have slipped over the past month. Just 60% now say he is at least somewhat likely to win, down from 73% a month ago. Only 17% say he is Very Likely to win, down from 24%. Just 30% of Democrats think New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson would have a chance of winning if nominated. Only 6% believe he would be Very Likely to win. Overall, Democrats are far more confident of victory than Republicans. Among all voters, 59% now say that Clinton has a chance of winning the White House if nominated. That’s up from 53% a month ago. Among unaffiliated voters, 55% now believe the former First Lady would have a chance, up from 42% a month ago. Twenty-eight percent (28%) of all voters think Clinton is Very Likely to win it all if she is on the ballot in 2008. Fifty-three percent (53%) of all voters say Obama is at least somewhat likely to win, including 16% who see his victory as Very Likely. Those figures have changed little in the past month. Only 39% of all voters now see an Edwards victory as likely. That’s down sharply from 54% a month ago. Only 10% see an Edwards victory as Very Likely, down from 16%. In the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Clinton remains the clear frontrunner with Obama in second place and Edwards in third. All three lead all Republican hopefuls in general election match-ups at this time. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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