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39% Say Clinton Very Likely Dem Nominee, 11% Say Obama
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Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters nationwide believe that Senator Hillary Clinton is Very Likely to be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2008. Eleven percent (11%) say the same about Senator Barack Obama and 9% believe former Senator John Edwards is Very Likely to win the nomination (see crosstabs).

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that when those who say a candidate is Somewhat Likely to win the nomination are added to the total, 74% say Clinton is Somewhat or Very Likely to win. Fifty-two percent (52%) say Obama has a chance while 32% say the same about Edwards.

On the Republican side, voters are far less certain. Twenty percent (20%) say former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is Very Likely to be the party nominee. Nine percent (9%) say the same about former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Eight percent (8%) say Arizona Senator John McCain is Very Likely to be the nominee while 5% believe the GOP is Very Likely to nominate Fred Thompson (see crosstabs).

Including those who say a candidate is Somewhat Likely to win the nomination, 61% think Giuliani has a shot at the nomination. That’s fairly remarkable given that two-thirds of Republicans view Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal.

Forty-three percent (43%) say that Romney is at least Somewhat Likely to win the nomination. Thirty-two percent (32%) say the same about McCain and 30% hold that view of Thompson.

It is interesting to note that there is very little difference in perceptions between voters at large and partisan voters. For example, 44% of Democrats think that Clinton is Very Likely to win the nomination, just a bit higher than the 39% figure among all voters. Twenty-three percent (23%) of Republicans believe that Giuliani is Very Likely to win the GOP nomination, not much different than the 20% total for all voters.

Clinton and Giuliani have been consistently in the lead nationally as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Clinton leads all Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire. In the Republican race, Romney has the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire.

See survey questions and top-line results. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Likelihood Candidate Will Win GOP Nomination?

GOP Candidate

Very Likely

Somewhat Likely

Rudy Giuliani

20%

41%

Mitt Romney

9%

34%

John McCain

8%

24%

Fred Thompson

5%

25%

Likelihood Candidate Will Win Dem Nomination?

Dem Candidate

Very Likely

Somewhat Likely

Hillary Clinton

39%

35%

Barack Obama

11%

41%

John Edwards

7%

25%

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