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Electoral College Projections
Saturday, October 30, 2004
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Three days to go and the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 222 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 186. There are now eleven states with 130 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category. In a clear measure of how close the election has become, the number of Toss-Up states has been increasing as Election Day draws near. Today's addition to the Toss-Up column is Michigan, a state that had previously been leaning towards Senator Kerry. When the year began, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were the four biggest Toss-Up states with a total of 85 Electoral Votes. All four have wavered towards one candidate or the other but are back in the Toss-Up category during the campaign's final weekend. Of the eleven Toss-Up states, Rasmussen Reports shows Bush with a slim lead in four (Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio). Kerry also has a slim lead in four of the states (Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Still, the big picture remains unchanged. If the President wins Florida and Ohio, he is likely to be re-elected. If he loses Ohio, there is a chance he could make it up in states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico. Senator Kerry needs to win Ohio or Florida and hang on to just about all of the Gore states. If he loses those states, it will take a surprise somewhere else for Kerry to win on November 2. With just a few days remaining, neither man can point with confidence to a combination that yields 270 Electoral Votes. Check out our state-by-state table and share your comments. The eleven Toss-Up states are Florida (27 Electoral Votes), Hawaii (4), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), and Wisconsin (10). Rasmussen Reports Premium Members receive daily Tracking Poll updates for Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. States in the Bush column include Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana, (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3). States in the Kerry column include California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland, (10), Massachusetts (12), New Jersey(15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), and Washington (11). TOSS-UP STATES Florida (27 Electoral Votes): The most notorious Toss-Up of Election 2000 is unbelievably close as Election 2004 draws to a close. Bush has a slight advantage in our daily Florida Tracking Poll, but neither campaign is taking the Sunshine State for granted. Iowa (7): Al Gore barely won this state four years ago. Iowa was leaning towards Kerry for most of 2004 until the Republican National Convention. This one is truly too close to call. Michigan (17): Thought to be safely in Kerry's column until recently. The Kerry campaign has increased their television advertising in the state and scheduled an extra visit by the Senator on the campaign's final day. Minnesota (10): Another formerly Blue State that is clearly in play for Election 2004. The state has been trending more Republican in recent Presidential Elections. Symbolic of the trend, Republican Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale in the state's 2002 U.S. Senate match. Nevada (5): This was a state the President expected to have wrapped up by now but polls continually show Senator Kerry within striking distance. New Hampshire (4): The President is slightly behind in New Hampshire, perhaps due to the fact that John Kerry is from next door Massachusetts. Bush has gained ground in recent weeks, but New Hampshire remains the only "Red State" with Kerry in the lead New Mexico (5): Too close to call four years ago and no different today. Several polls, including ours, show the President with a modest lead in New Mexico. Ohio (20): The election may be decided in Ohio. That's why we've already seen plenty of legal wrangling about who can vote and where. Republicans have registered far more precinct workers than Democrats to challenge those they believe are not eligible to vote. Pennsylvania (21): Throughout 2004, the Keystone State has wavered between Toss-Up status and Leans Kerry. It is far more likely to end up in the Kerry column rather than voting for Bush. However, the Democrats haven't quite been able to close the sale yet and the President keeps visiting the state. Wisconsin (10): Along with Iowa and Minnesota, this is one of three mid-Western states that the President lost four years ago but hopes to capture this time around. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Based Upon Most Recent Rasmussen Reports
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