Rasmussen Reports
The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election.
Search
Sign up for free daily updates
Advertisement
Advertisement

Election 2004: Month-by-Month
Advertisement

Data from 269 days of Rasmussen Reports Tracking Polls provides a reminder of just how close the campaign has been all year... and for how long it has been so painfully close.

  • During George W. Bush's worst month of Election 2004 (May), he averaged 45.5% of the vote in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll. During his best month (October), he averaged less than three points more than that--48.8%.
  • For John Kerry, the difference between his worst month and his best month was even smaller--from a low of 45.1% in May to 47.2% in July.
  • For Senator Kerry, his best day in every month was at 47%-49% of the vote. With one exception, the same is true for President Bush. (These are the figures listed under "high" for each candidate in the table below).
  • The Senator's worst day each month was between 43% and 45%. For the President, the range is a bit wider--from 42% to 47%. (These are the figures listed under "high" for each candidate in the table below).
  • Both candidates were ahead at some point in every single month except September. During that month, following the GOP convention, Kerry's best day was a tie.

This table as of November 1, 2004

2004

Bush vs. Kerry month-by-month

RR

President Bush

Senator Kerry

Spread

High

Low

Average

High

Low

Average

High Bush

High Kerry

Average

Oct

49.6

46.4

48.3

47.8

45.3

46.5

B + 4.0

K + 2.0

B + 1.8

Sep

49.4

47.1

48.0

46.8

44.7

45.4

B + 4.6

Even

B + 2.6

Aug

48

45

46.4

49

45

45.8

B + 1

K + 4

B + 0.6

Jul

47

44

45.6

48

45

47.2

B + 2

K + 4

K + 1.6

Jun

47

44

45.9

47

44

45.4

B + 3

K + 3

B + 0.5

May

46

43

45.5

47

43

45.1

B + 3

K + 4

B + 0.4

Apr

48

42

45.6

48

44

45.3

B + 4

K + 6

B + 0.3

Mar

49

44

45.5

47

43

45.6

B + 5

K + 4

K + 0.1

Feb

49

43

46.4

48

43

45.2

B + 5

K + 4

B + 1.2

Selected Data from Rasmussen Reports National Tracking Poll Feb - Oct, 2004 of 165,000 Likely Voters:

14,500 Likely Voters in February 15,500 Likely Voters in March 15,000 Likely Voters in April

15,000 Likely Voters in May 15,000 Likely Voters in June 14,000 Likely Voters in July

15,500 Likely Voters in August 30,000 Likely Voters in September 31,000 Likely Voters in October

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.