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The Declining Economy and Election 2008
Friday, March 21, 2008
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The economy has emerged as the top voting issue for Election 2008 at a time when the nation’s consumer and investor confidence has fallen to the lowest level of the past seven years. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis looks at how rapidly economic confidence has deteriorated in the past several months. Data from the Rasmussen Consumer Index, a daily measure of economic confidence, provides a sobering look at public perceptions on this topic. On Friday, March 21, just 15% of American adults rated the economy as good or excellent. Fifty percent (50%) said the economy was in poor shape. Just 10% believe the economy is getting better while 74% say it is getting worse. Fifty-six percent (56%) say the economy is already in a recession while another 9% believe a recession is coming soon. The Index itself has been below 80.0 for fifteen of the last sixteen days. Prior to this recent stretch, the Index had NEVER fallen below 80.0 in nearly seven years of daily tracking. Other indicators compiled by Rasmussen Reports in recent years show similar bearish assessments of economic conditions. Record lows have recently been set for the Discover Consumer Spending Monitor, the Hudson Employment Index, the Country Financial Security Index, and the Discover Small Business Watch. While economists argue about whether or not the recession has started, a separate survey found that 38% believe a 1930’s style Depression is at least somewhat likely. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say it’s likely that other large investment firms may go the way of Bear Stearns and just 23% believe there are enough safeguards in place to prevent another Depression. While voters agree on the importance of the economy, there is less agreement on what that means. Fifty-three percent (53%) say it’s most important to create economic growth while 40% say it’s more important to reduce the income gap between rich and poor. Republicans tend to say creating economic growth is most important while Democrats place a higher priority on reducing income inequality. Regardless of the priority, there is little confidence that the nation’s political leaders can do much help. Just 12% of American voters say it’s Very Likely Congress will take steps to help the economy in 2008. Another 38% say it is Somewhat Likely that the Honorables will do something good for the economy. However, roughly the same numbers say that Congress will take action to harm the economy this year--14% say that’s Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely. In other words, only 26% of voters believed Congress was Very Likely to have any impact on the most important issue of the day. That fact alone goes a long way to explaining public frustration with official Washington. When the legislators roused themselves to pass the economic stimulus package earlier this year, the public reception was lukewarm at best. Under normal circumstances, a rapidly declining economy would be enough to sink the Presidential candidate from the Party currently occupying the White House. In fact, a Rasmussen Reports video analysis notes that while John McCain has had a great month of March, woes could trip up his campaign before November. But, early polling shows that McCain is competitive with both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in terms of who voters trust on the economy. It’s also worth noting that many voters are not sure what role the government should play in addressing today’s economic issues. For example, most Americans (64%) think a tsunami of foreclosures in coming months would spell big trouble for the U.S. economy. Sensing this, many politicians have suggested ways to help homeowners. But, only 27% say government should assist homeowners who can't otherwise make their payments. Fifty-seven percent (57%) believe that homeowners who can no longer make their payments should simply sell and downsize. And, of course, there is always the issue of taxes. In results that remain consistent year-in and year-out, 54% of American voters believe that tax cuts generally help the economy. Looking at the opposite end of the spectrum, 64% believe that tax increases harm the economy. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. TOP STORIESWest Virginia: Clinton 56% Obama 27% Kentucky: Clinton 56% Obama 31% Electoral College: Democrats 200 Republicans 189 Leaners 111 Toss-Up 38 Oregon: Obama 51% Clinton 39% Election 2008 Creating Record Number of Democrats Indiana Democratic Primary Voters Split on Gas Tax Holiday, but Concerned About Tax Hikes Bush Job Approval at 34% North Carolina: Obama 49% Clinton 40% Advertisment
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