Here's another race to keep people up late on election night. All year long, the two candidates have been trading the lead position. Now, with less than two weeks to go, it’s a toss-up once again.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Republican Tom Kean Jr. with 43% of the vote and Democratic Senator Bob Menendez with 41%. However, when we add in the leaners, it’s all tied at 45% (see crosstabs).

What’s truly amazing about these numbers is the fact that Menendez can’t pull away despite the deep Blue nature of the state. By a margin of 54% to 36%, New Jersey voters prefer Democratic control of the Senate. But Menendez attracts only 74% of those who want Democrats running things.

Rasmussen Reports conducted the current poll October 25. On October 11, it was Menendez in front 42% to 39%. In September it was Kean 41%, Menendez 40%.

Obviously, the race remains a "Toss-Up" in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

Two weeks ago in Scott's Page, it was proposed that "the Garden State's Blue State tendencies appear to be dragging Senator Bob Menendez towards a modest victory." But that may no longer be the case. There's plenty of opportunity for the race to go either way on Election Day no matter how the numbers are crunched.

For one thing, New Jersey’s Supreme Court just lobbed an October surprise with a ruling that same-sex couples should enjoy the same legal rights as married couples. It has ordered the state legislature to implement the ruling. Just 54% of New Jersey voters believe marriage should be restricted to the traditional definition, but this is a social issue that has energized some GOP voters before.

As negative campaigning has taken its toll, voters aren't bowled over by either candidate. Menendez is viewed favorably by 41%, Kean by 44%. But Kean is viewed "very favorably" by more voters (14% versus Menendez's 11%, and "very unfavorably" by fewer (23% versus 29%).

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.