America's two-party system generally marginalizes Independent and third-party candidacies, but every once in a while a contest shows the system is not set in concrete: Ross Perot running for President, Jesse Ventura running for Governor, and, now, Joseph Lieberman.

The difference between Lieberman and the others, of course, is that Senator Lieberman is running as an incumbent after narrowly losing the Democratic primary.

Lieberman now attracts 45% of the vote in Connecticut's three-way U.S. Senate race, Democrat Ned Lamont gets 43% and Republican Alan Schlesinger brings up the rear with a meager 6% (see crosstabs).

In our previous election poll, the first conducted after Lieberman's loss in the Democratic primary, the incumbent enjoyed a five-point advantage. However, the numbers have barely shifted for each candidate so nothing in the way of momentum can be read into the new data. The new poll does confirm that Lieberman remains very much in the running, that the race is close, and that Schlesinger can't win but he may well tip the balance.

This race has no impact on our Senate Balance of Power summary. Both Lieberman and Lamont will vote with the Democrats when it comes time to organize the Senate. At the moment, we project 50 Senate seats for the GOP and 47 for the Democrats. These totals include a handful of states that are only leaning towards one party or the other.

It is possible that the Lamont-Lieberman match-up has had an impact on the overall trends in Election 2006. Since Lamont’s Primary victory, several polls have been released showing Republicans doing better on the Generic Congressional Ballot question (see Scott’s Page comments).

Schlesinger now attracts 17% of Republican voters, while Lieberman attracts 62% of Republicans. Schlesinger supporters are thus much more likely to switch their support to Lieberman than to Lamont if the race remains tight. On the other hand, any gains for the GOP candidate will come from Lieberman’s current supporters. (Unaffiliated voters, who give Schlesinger 4% of their support, are closely divided between Lamont and Lieberman.)

Senator Lieberman is viewed favorably by 57% of all voters, a decline of five percentage points since our August 9-10 poll. Lamont is viewed favorably by 52%, a two-point increase.

Lamont is now seen as liberal by 58% of all voters, versus 51% in the previous survey. Most see Lieberman as moderate, but 5% more voters now regard him as "conservative." That polarization of perception may be a result of both the war issue and Lieberman's willingness to take on a Democrat in the general election.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.