Now that Republican State Senator Jim Barnett has won the August 1 primary, Governor Kathleen Sebelius leads her challenger 48% to 37%, a drop from seventeen percentage points to eleven (see crosstabs).

The Governor's support has yet to rise much above 50% in any case. But the decline reflects the closer competition we often see in a final campaign stretch and have been seeing in races around the country. (See the analysis of Senate races at Scott's Page.)

Sebelius's current lead is comparable to what we saw in April, when her support was at 49%. A Democrat in a Republican-leaning state, the incumbent continues to enjoy high favorables and job ratings, with 35% viewing her "very favorably," only 11% "very unfavorably." Thirty-two percent (32%) "strongly approve" of her performance as Governor.

Barnett is viewed very favorably by only 19%, and although fewer (9%) see him very unfavorably than see the Governor that way, he's still an unknown to 18%. By contrast, only 3% are "not sure" what to think of the Governor (and only 1% abstain from assessing her performance).

Although her popularity—fairly high even with GOP voters—isn't being translated into the safer levels of support that widely-liked incumbents have attracted elsewhere, the Governor is likely to secure reelection.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of all voters and 43% of GOP voters, 66% of Democrats, see Sebelius as a moderate. GOP voters are most likely to see her as liberal: 45% do, versus 28% of all voters and only 6% of Democrats.

Barnett is considered conservative by 39% of all voters, moderate by 24%. But 28% are "not sure." The uncertainty is most common among Democrats and unaffiliated voters, but a fifth of Republicans are also unsure where he stands. The crowded GOP field and a relatively late primary no doubt have something to do with that.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.